BofA Sees 100 GW US Capacity Gap as Data Centres Outrun Utility Plans
Regulated utilities plan 93 GW of accredited supply against forecast need exceeding 230 GW, pushing developers toward behind-the-meter gas generation.
Bank of America analysts forecast the United States will need more than 230 GW of new generating capacity over the next five years, while regulated utilities are expected to add only about 93 GW of accredited supply — a gap exceeding 100 GW that data centres alone could drive wider still.7
The fastest lever a developer can pull is a turbine, not a transmission line. BofA expects more data centre developers to turn to behind-the-meter generation as utilities struggle to bring capacity online quickly enough, and manufacturers including Caterpillar, INNIO, Rolls-Royce and Wärtsilä have already expanded production to meet rising demand, the analysts said.7
The arithmetic is contested in one specific way. Planned generation additions may overstate available supply because intermittent resources such as wind and solar contribute less accredited capacity during peak demand than their nameplate ratings suggest. A 93 GW pipeline measured in accredited terms is thinner than it looks, and the shortfall is wider than a simple subtraction implies.7
Against that supply picture, demand forecasts keep escalating. Data centre power demand is projected to roughly double to around 945 TWh by 2030, according to forecasts cited in the source material, while Goldman Sachs has put data-centre power demand rising 175% by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. Meeting those numbers requires $6.7 trillion in capital by 2030, including $5.2 trillion for AI infrastructure alone.6
PwC's Global Infrastructure Outlook 2025–50 puts projected cumulative spending on power infrastructure at $25.0 trillion by 2050, with annual spending rising 76% to $1.1 trillion. Those are decade-scale figures. The nearer-term pressure shows up in interconnection queues, turbine lead times and the cost of capital for projects that need years of construction before generating a single megawatt.5,6
Financing conditions add another constraint. Energy infrastructure requires large capital commitments, and higher interest rates raise project costs, making timing consequential even when the long-term demand case holds.3 Projects with the strongest sponsors, best locations and clearest utility partnerships will likely move forward; others may face delays, cost overruns or longer interconnection timelines.4
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas settled at $2.91/MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-09-19). For context, June NYMEX natural gas settled at $2.96/MMBtu on Friday (2026-05-15), gaining 2.3% on the day and about 7.4% on the week, as expectations of hotter weather and stronger power-sector demand lifted the market. Weekly LNG vessel departures reached 141 billion cubic feet that same week, up 26 Bcf, despite maintenance at several export facilities.1
Uranium and coal ETFs each fell roughly 3% in Friday's session (2026-09-19), with the uranium ETF at $41.65 and the coal ETF at $25.00 at that close. The equity market, not the gas curve, is where investors are currently registering second thoughts about the timing of the AI power trade. [live prices]
European analysts frame the same dynamic through grid constraints rather than fuel mix. Montel senior analyst Huangluolun Zhou examined how the AI surge is driving rapid, localised growth in data centre demand and what it means for European grids and policy. Localised is the operative word: a single campus can overwhelm a regional network long before national demand forecasts move.2
That local mismatch is reshaping deal-making. Energy, utilities and resources M&A has shifted toward utilities, gas and grid assets, with reliability becoming the main driver as AI-driven electricity demand and grid constraints reshape deal flow. Buying an interconnection queue, a pipeline or a grid asset is now a cheaper route to capacity than building from scratch.5
If BofA's 230 GW figure proves accurate and utilities deliver near 93 GW of accredited supply, the shortfall gets filled by on-site turbines burning gas, by delayed projects, or by demand that simply does not get served. Behind-the-meter orders at Caterpillar and Wärtsilä, and the pace of interconnection-queue withdrawals, are the first places that answer will become visible.7