US Pushes Maximum LNG Exports While Europe Balks at Long-Term Deals
James Danly's energy dominance pledge collides with European reluctance to commit to US supply contracts, blocked in part by unresolved methane compliance rules.
James Danly, the US deputy secretary of energy, said on Thursday (2026-09-17) that the United States aims to export "as much LNG around the world as possible," framing the goal as part of Washington's "energy dominance agenda," Montel reported.8
The supply base behind that ambition has expanded fast. US facilities supplied approximately 1.10 trillion cubic feet of the 1.2 trillion cubic feet added to global LNG exports in 2025 — around 93% of all incremental supply worldwide, according to Forbes. Exports reached 5.2 trillion cubic feet last year, up 27% from 4.1 trillion cubic feet in 2024, per the Energy Institute's 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, giving the US a 25.4% share of the global LNG market. In 2015, the United States exported less than 0.03 trillion cubic feet.6,7
Europe is the natural destination for further growth. The EU is phasing out Russian gas while Middle East supply disruptions add buyer urgency. Yet European buyers are declining to commit to the long-term supply agreements that US exporters need to justify new capacity, Montel reported.5,2
The methane compliance dispute sits at the center of those stalled talks. A US government official told Montel on Tuesday (2026-05-19) that EU methane emissions regulations on LNG imports are "impossible to meet" and are placing a "cloud" over contract negotiations, with the official describing the rules as among the most complex encountered. Long-term deals need regulatory certainty on both sides, and neither side has provided it.1
Washington has relied on political assurances instead. Former US energy minister Dan Brouillette told Montel on Thursday (2026-06-11) that the US would "be a reliable supplier" of LNG to Europe and that export controls were unlikely. The Atlantic Council noted in June that four US administrations with divergent energy priorities have maintained export authorization, a track record that American officials use to argue long-term political risk is lower than European buyers are pricing in.4,3
European participants have not been swayed. When a US LNG executive argued on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that growing reliance on American supply should not concern buyers, Montel reported that EU market participants pushed back directly: buyers want geographic diversification, not concentration in a single exporting country.2
IEEFA has put a number on where current trends lead. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis forecast that the EU could source as much as 80% of its LNG imports from the United States by 2028, Oilprice.com reported. For European energy buyers who spent the last decade reducing pipeline exposure to Russia, the prospect of a single country supplying four-fifths of their LNG is a supply security question that Washington's assurances do not fully resolve.5
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas traded at €79.54/MWh in September 19 pricing, with NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.91/MMBtu. The transatlantic spread keeps Atlantic LNG arbitrage viable for spot cargoes. But long-term buyers must weigh methane compliance costs and political exposure over a timeframe where spot economics offer no guidance.
Western LNG's Ksi Lisims project, a Canadian facility competing for the same pool of European and Asian buyers, already holds offtake deals for 5 million tons of annual production but is still seeking commitments for a further 3 to 4 million tons, Oilprice.com reported. Thin appetite for long-term LNG supply contracts extends across the market, not just for US volumes.5
The methane compliance impasse between Brussels and Washington is the practical barrier to Danly's volume target. Progress in those bilateral talks, not Washington's energy dominance declarations, is what separates ambition from contracts.8,1