Asian LNG Imports Track Toward Weakest September Since 2018 as Spot Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs
Kpler puts September Asian flows at 20.09 million tons, down roughly 10% year-on-year, as a 150% spot price surge reshapes global LNG trade.
Asian LNG imports are on course for their weakest September in eight years. Kpler estimates total flows into Asian countries this month at 20.09 million tons, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell reported during the week of 2026-09-14. That compares with 22.27 million tons in September 2025 and 22.25 million tons in August 2026 — a near-10% annual drop that wipes out the seasonal recovery many buyers had anticipated for autumn.6,5
The demand retreat tracks directly to prices. LNG spot prices have risen roughly 150% since February, when the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran. JKM, the Asian spot benchmark, was at $27.51 per MMBtu at Saturday's close (2026-09-19). For price-sensitive buyers across Northeast Asia, that level is deterring purchases. Analysts cited by Reuters estimate Asian LNG demand will fall between 3% and 10% for the full year relative to 2025 — which would mark the second consecutive annual decline.6,5,4
The supply disruption driving those prices traces back to the Gulf. The U.S.-Israeli military campaign disrupted freight traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and cut LNG flows from Qatar by over 60% year-on-year, according to Kpler. Qatar's energy minister estimated the supply shortfall from the country's force majeure at around 12.8 million tons annually. Up to 80% of Persian Gulf LNG production historically moved to Asian buyers, making the curtailment particularly sharp for the region.2,6,1
Europe has stepped in where Asia has pulled back. Kpler data puts European LNG imports at 7.98 million tons this month, with October volumes potentially reaching 10.53 million tons. EU gas storage remains substantially below seasonal norms, leaving buyers little room to defer. Over the first eight months of 2026, European LNG imports stood at 117.01 million tons — already approaching last year's full-year record of 125.20 million tons, with Kpler expecting the annual record to fall before December.6
European buyers are absorbing higher prices because storage deficits leave them with limited options. Asian buyers, facing no equivalent heating-season urgency in September, are deferring. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was at €79.54 per MWh at Saturday's close (2026-09-19), and THE M+1 settled at €80.70 per MWh at the close on 2026-09-19. Both benchmarks reflect tighter Atlantic supply conditions.6,2
Northeast Asia has absorbed the heaviest share of the demand destruction. Japan, South Korea and China have all pulled back at elevated prices, according to analysts cited by Reuters. China imported 4.9 million tons in May 2026, a marginal annual increase, but showed sharper weakness earlier in the year: March imports fell to 3.5 million tons, down 30% year-on-year per Kpler data, pulling total Asian imports that month to 21.12 million tons — the lowest in seven years, according to Gas Exporting Countries Forum data.1,5
U.S. exporters have been the principal beneficiary of the supply shuffle. American firms shipped just over 73 million tons of LNG during January through July 2026, up 23% from the same months in 2025, according to Kpler. The gap left by Qatar's curtailments opened room for additional U.S. cargoes, with European buyers desperate for supply providing the ready market. LSEG data shows key forward gas prices in both Europe and Asia have climbed to their highest in more than three years.2,3
But the durability of that trade pattern rests on demand that is now visibly cracking. With JKM at $27.51 per MMBtu at Saturday's close (2026-09-19), spot LNG is priced at levels cutting out a broad tier of Asian buyers — particularly in South and Southeast Asia where sensitivity to price swings is sharpest. Wood Mackenzie expects prices to stay elevated even if Hormuz shipping resumes by year-end, sustained by Europe's need to fill depleted storage before the 2026-27 winter.4
September's 20.09 million-ton figure will serve as a reference point for what comes next. If October tracks lower still, the case for a near-term Asian demand rebound becomes harder to sustain. The two variables most worth watching are how quickly Qatari flows can resume and whether winter temperatures in Northeast Asia run cold enough to push buyers back into the spot market regardless of price.4,6