Gazprom Claims Winter Readiness as Ukraine Underground Stores Sit at 34% of Capacity
Miller's seasonal assurance comes alongside AGSI data showing Ukrainian underground gas stocks at just 34% of working capacity, a thin buffer for a key transit corridor.
Gazprom management committee chair Alexey Miller said on Monday (2026-09-07) that Russia and its trading partners had accumulated sufficient natural gas in underground storage for the coming winter. Aggregate European storage reached 757.07 terawatt-hours on that date, per GIE's Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. That figure covers a wide range of national positions.6
Ukraine's is among the thinnest. AGSI dashboard data showed its filling level at 34.17%, representing 109.68 terawatt-hours, as of Monday (2026-09-07). Ukraine is both a transit corridor for gas flows into Central and Eastern Europe and a holder of substantial underground storage capacity. Its 34.17% reading is a separate concern from the aggregate Miller cited.6
Miller's winter statement arrived three months after Gazprom signed a legally binding deal on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to construct Power of Siberia 2, a 2,600-kilometre pipeline intended to carry 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas per year from the Arctic Yamal fields to China via Mongolia. Miller signed on Gazprom's behalf. The legal framework is in place, but key commercial details and a construction timetable were still being negotiated in the weeks that followed, the Independent reported.5,2,4
The existing Power of Siberia 1 delivered 38 billion cubic metres to China last year, and Putin and Xi agreed at their September 2025 summit to raise that pipeline's annual capacity to 44 billion cubic metres. Bloomberg News reported in July 2025 that exports through Power of Siberia 1 were projected to climb more than 20% to reach the 38-bcm ceiling this year.2,1
Russia's ability to deliver on those targets runs against a declining production trend. Bloomberg News reported in July 2025 that Russia produced approximately 334.8 billion cubic metres of natural and associated gas through June 2025, a 3.2% fall on the same period a year earlier. LNG output weakened in parallel, dropping 5.1% to around 16.5 million tons, according to federal statistics data.1
China does not depend solely on Russia for pipeline supply. Three pipelines originating in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, routed through Kazakhstan into Xinjiang, already deliver over 40 billion cubic metres annually. The 793-kilometre Myanmar-China gas pipeline, operational since 2013, was built to carry 12 billion cubic metres per year. Russia and China are separately constructing a pipeline from Sakhalin with a 10-bcm capacity. Power of Siberia 2 volumes, when they eventually flow, would enter a market served by several established routes.2
China's 15th five-year plan, released in March 2026, committed to advancing early-stage work on Power of Siberia 2 but specified no build timetable. Following the May summit, key commercial details remained unresolved despite the legal framework having been signed, the Independent reported. The gap between a signed agreement and an operational pipeline is still measured in years.2
Vita Spivak, energy analyst at Control Risks, said China would require additional gas in coming years as it phases down coal — a shift she sees as the demand driver underlying the Kremlin's push for Power of Siberia 2. How much incremental Chinese demand goes to Russian pipe gas versus LNG or expanded Central Asian supply is not settled by the May deal alone. JKM Asian LNG spot prices settled at $27.51 per MMBtu at the 2026-09-19 close, a pricing environment that makes long-term pipeline supply economically appealing to Chinese buyers, if the infrastructure is eventually built.3
Ukraine's 34.17% storage reading remains the more immediate concern. If the 2026-2027 heating season runs colder than forecast, a transit corridor sitting this light on reserves will face supply pressure long before Power of Siberia 2 delivers its first cubic metre.6