India Fuels Global Mine Expansion as Its Coal-Fired Generation Posts First Decline in 50 Years
IEA confirmed India's first coal power decline in 50 years; new mine proposals targeting 2.5 billion extra tonnes of annual capacity surged 11% year on year.
India's coal-fired power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in 50 years, the IEA reported on September 12 (2026-09-12). That same year, new coalmine proposals globally were large enough to add 2.5 billion tonnes of annual supply capacity, 11% higher than the year before, with India igniting the rise in new proposals, Global Energy Monitor found in a report published in August (2026-08-12).7,5
Both India and China saw coal-fired generation fall in the same calendar year for the first time in five decades, the IEA noted. Together those two countries produce nearly 69% of the world's coal-fired electricity, so synchronized demand retreats carry disproportionate weight for the global total.7,2
Global Energy Monitor found the planned supply expansion was arriving even as demand had plateaued. India ignited the rise in new coalmine proposals — a push for future mining capacity that does not match how Indian power plants actually burned coal in 2025.5
Supply investment has not adjusted to the demand shift. Global coal spending is set to reach $180 billion this year, up 4% from 2025 and the highest since 2012, with China absorbing around 65% of that total, the IEA says. Steam coal investment is rising 5%; coking coal spending is up 3%.1
Energy-security calculation after the Hormuz disruption reinforced the investment. Asian buyers, who had been sourcing 80% to 90% of Gulf oil and gas exports, pivoted toward domestic production after Ras Laffan LNG damage left around 17 billion cubic metres of annual capacity offline. Coal offered the most readily available domestic alternative for many of those buyers.1
India's coal balance divides by fuel type. The IEA's mid-year coal update, published September 10 (2026-09-10), projected India's thermal coal imports falling to around 160 million tonnes this year, while the country leads global coking coal demand growth. Less imported power-sector coal reflects a domestic supply push; rising coking coal demand signals continued industrial expansion.6
China presents a similar split at greater scale. Coal supplied around 55% of Chinese electricity in 2025, the IEA estimated, even as China built more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined. Asia Pacific coal generation fell 1.2% overall, a modest percentage that nonetheless shifts significant tonnage in a market those two countries dominate.4,3
The United States moved in the opposite direction. Coal consumption rose 10.4% to 8.7 exajoules and coal-fired electricity generation jumped 13.1% to 804 terawatt-hours. Coal-fired output remains roughly 63% below its 2007 high and domestic production about 54% below its 1998 peak, measures that frame how deep the structural decline runs despite last year's gains.3
Europe continued its exit. EU coal generation fell 3.6%, leaving it at 2.6% of global coal-fired electricity output, against a broader European decrease of 3.4%. Continental Europe's share has shrunk to the point where even a full shutdown of remaining capacity would move the global total only marginally.3
The IEA expects coal-fired plants to generate 10,974 TWh globally in 2026, close to a third of all electricity. Newcastle physical coal held at $139 per tonne as of September 16 (2026-09-16), essentially flat on the session.4
Miners are betting on sustained Asian demand as the project pipeline extends. If coal-fired generation in India and China continues its 2025 trajectory, the 2.5 billion tonnes of new project proposals entering the development queue will face a market that is contracting at the top. Given the lead times on coalmine development, much of that capital is already committed.5,7