Brent Crude Eases From $107 Peak as Hormuz Squeeze Drives US Inflation Higher
ICE Brent front-month hit $107 before retreating, with energy costs lifting monthly CPI and driving the S&P 500's longest losing streak since June.
ICE Brent crude front-month touched above $107 per barrel on Thursday (2026-09-10) before settling at $106.24 as of Monday (2026-09-14), with the move deep enough to register in US consumer prices and push equities into their longest losing streak since June. The rally began on Tuesday (2026-09-08), when Houthi fighters struck oil facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, briefly pushing Brent above $100 for the first time in three months.6,3
The CPI link has added pressure on policymakers. Monthly US consumer prices rose 0.2%, in line with estimates and up from 0.1% the previous month, with most of the increase attributed to energy, Bloomberg Surveillance reported. Treasury yields moved higher as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve could sustain an easing path with energy costs climbing again.7,6
The price sequence was compressed and steep. Brent closed at $97.92 on Tuesday (2026-09-08), crossed $100.45 in early trading on Wednesday (2026-09-09), and reached $102.05 that same morning before the week's peak above $107 on Thursday (2026-09-10). The ICE Brent front-month has gained roughly 25% since early August and is up more than 60% year-to-date, Cryptobriefing reported.4,5
The proximate driver is a sharp compression of flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the US-Iran confrontation escalated in late August, transit volumes have dropped to around 2 million barrels per day, down from 8 to 9 million bpd before the escalation — a decline of roughly 75%, Cryptobriefing reported.5
Yet Brent did not react this way when the disruption was at its most severe. During what one market analyst described as the "actively kinetic" phase of the Iran conflict, when Hormuz shipments were effectively halted and the potential shortfall ran to 10-15 million barrels per day, Chinese oil demand simultaneously evaporated, blunting the price response. That buffer is dissolving. OilPrice.com reported that Chinese seaborne crude imports are now trending toward 10 million barrels per day, with the Shanghai crude spread signaling an aggressive rise in purchases as buyers race to secure alternative supplies.2
OPEC+ has not moved to fill the gap. The group kept September's required production levels unchanged for October, leaving the market without additional supply from the alliance, the CIO at Zaye Capital Markets said.4
The main offset is demand destruction. The IEA forecasts global oil demand falling by 1.6 million barrels per day this year as higher fuel costs and disrupted trade erode consumption, the Zaye Capital Markets CIO noted. Consumption has not fallen fast enough to cap prices yet.4
"Oil investors are expressing their view about the impact of the latest bout of escalation in the Middle East in an unambiguous way," Tamas Varga, an analyst, told Rigzone. The last time ICE Brent closed at or above $100 was on July 23 (2026-07-23), at $100.69, before the current run.4
Iran-backed Houthi forces had struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea on that same date (2026-07-23), opening a second supply front beyond Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb waterway handled about 5.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter, per EIA figures, placing substantial additional volume at risk alongside the compressed Hormuz corridor.1
Options markets are pricing a 3.1% probability of crude hitting an all-time high by September 30, a slight increase from prior sessions, Cryptobriefing reported. VIX closed Monday (2026-09-14) at 17.10, up nearly 8% on the session, signaling elevated near-term equity hedging.6
The EIA reported a surprise 1.4 million barrel build in US crude inventories, the lone bearish supply data point in recent weeks. But with Hormuz transit running at roughly a quarter of pre-escalation levels and Chinese buyers returning aggressively, a single domestic stock build provides limited comfort to refiners reliant on Atlantic Basin supply. Whether Beijing's accelerating purchases push spot differentials wide enough to unwind alternative routing economics is the supply calculation most likely to force the next move.1,2