Brent at $108 as Hormuz Tanker Attacks Extend the Oil Rally
ICE Brent front-month held above $108 on Tuesday as Persian Gulf flows stayed below 45% of pre-war levels and Goldman Sachs kept its $120 year-end target in place.
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $108.56 a barrel as of Tuesday (2026-09-15), extending a run that began when the conflict's largest attacks on vessels drove prices above $100 on September 9 (2026-09-09). Brent has risen nearly 30% from early August lows, according to oil market reporting by nv.ua, and every attempted diplomatic reset has ended with fighting resuming. No ceasefire has held.7
Persian Gulf flows have fallen to below 45% of pre-war levels through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note quoted by Bloomberg on July 21 (2026-07-21). Goldman set a $120-per-barrel year-end target on that basis, citing escalating Middle East hostilities and persistent throughput constraints at the waterway, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply.6,5
Goldman's $120 call was issued when Brent had just recovered to around $78 per barrel following a 3%-plus surge on July 13 (2026-07-13), according to cryptobriefing.com. Current prices are roughly $30 higher. That gap puts the bank's forecast well below where the market is already trading, raising the question of how far Hormuz transit volumes would need to recover before the $120 target regains relevance.5,6
Rystad Energy went further in early June. Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad, projected that acute re-escalation and prolonged Hormuz blockage could push crude to $180 a barrel by August (2026-08). Prices did not reach that level, but the underlying supply disruption León identified has driven the market from below $80 in mid-summer to triple digits.2
The diplomatic backdrop has offered little relief. Washington and Tehran signed an interim memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities earlier in the summer, but traders noted the latest escalation came just weeks after that agreement was reached. Fighting resumed late in August, according to nv.ua, and no deal on Hormuz shipping normalisation has materialised.4,7
OPEC+ has tried to cushion the market. The group agreed to raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, following a similar increment in June and after monthly production hikes of 206,000 bpd approved in April and May, according to outlookbusiness.com. Analysts said the additional supply is unlikely to fully offset market concerns because several members remain unable to meet their targets due to logistical disruptions and export constraints.3
The regional price structure reflects the severity of Gulf supply disruption. Dubai crude was quoted at $114.91 a barrel as of Tuesday (2026-09-15), above ICE Brent front-month. Asian LNG futures on the JKM benchmark were at $25.06 per MMBtu on the same session. The contrast with late May is sharp: Brent was at $94.29 on May 28 (2026-05-28) when investors briefly bet that Hormuz shipping could normalise, sending prices down more than 5% in Asian trading, according to oilprice.com.1
Energy analysts said traders are still weighing residual optimism about diplomatic progress against concerns over depleted inventories, damaged infrastructure and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, according to oilprice.com. Renewed hostilities have weakened expectations of a broader peace agreement, which many market participants had believed would eventually lead to Hormuz reopening, outlookbusiness.com reported.1,3
Goldman's year-end $120 target now sits roughly 9% below Tuesday's (2026-09-15) Brent settlement. If Persian Gulf throughput stays below 45% of pre-war levels into the fourth quarter, when global refinery run rates typically rise, the gap between that forecast and the market's current position narrows further. Whether Washington and Tehran return to a ceasefire framework before peak demand season sets in is the next signal traders are pricing against.6