Suez Canal Revenue Jumps 42% as Tankers Flee Red Sea and Brent Holds Above $105
Tanker rerouting through Egypt confirms a dual-chokepoint squeeze, with Brent above $100 since late July 2026 and forecasters flagging $120 risk on a full Bab el-Mandeb closure.
Suez Canal revenues rose 42% in July 2026 to $505 million, up from $355 million in July 2025 and $438 million in June 2026, as oil tankers diverted from the Red Sea flooded into the Egyptian waterway, according to Egyptian statistics agency CAPMAS data cited by Bloomberg. The number of vessels transiting the canal in July 2026 rose 27% year-on-year to 1,340 ships.8
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $105.03 per barrel on Monday (2026-09-14), sustained well above the $100 level it breached on July 23, 2026 (2026-07-23), when Houthi rebels struck two Saudi oil tankers in an escalation that sent crude up more than 6% in a single session. NYMEX WTI front-month cleared $90 for the first time since June 11, 2026 (2026-06-11) on that day, ending over 5% higher at $91.24.5
Two simultaneous chokepoints explain much of the bid in crude. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026, removing roughly 13 million barrels per day from global supply, according to reporting citing the International Energy Agency.1,7 Existing pipelines cannot replace those volumes, and new capacity takes years and billions of dollars to build.7
The Red Sea had been the partial workaround. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were exporting around 6.8 million barrels per day through that route, roughly half of normal Hormuz volumes, before the Houthi campaign shifted focus south toward Bab el-Mandeb, according to Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon, senior vice president for geopolitical analysis.6 Of that, approximately 2.5 million barrels per day were Saudi oil moving through the narrow strait.6
Saudi Arabia had been running its Red Sea terminals at record pace. In the week to July 17, 2026 (2026-07-17), the kingdom shipped 5.9 million barrels per day from its two Yanbu terminals, according to tanker tracking data cited by Rigzone.3 After the Houthi embargo announcement, the rerouting was near-immediate. On Tuesday (2026-07-21), a Greek-owned Suezmax called the Amazon, which had departed Yanbu with more than 1 million barrels of crude, switched its destination to the Suez Canal.3
But the Suez option has a physical ceiling. Supertankers cannot transit the canal, forcing Saudi volumes onto smaller vessels and raising freight costs and fuel consumption per barrel delivered, according to oilprice.com.1 For cargoes rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope entirely, the time and cost penalties are larger still. Both paths tighten prompt supply availability in consuming markets.
A MarineTraffic analyst said on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that the "Bab el-Mandeb risk picture is deteriorating," referring to the growing scope of Houthi maritime operations.4 FXEmpire analysts estimated on July 20, 2026 (2026-07-20) that a full closure of the strait could push crude toward $120 per barrel, as reduced routing options force higher costs on barrels destined for European and Asian buyers.2
Dubai crude sat at $116.42 per barrel on Monday (2026-09-14), an $11 premium over ICE Brent front-month at $105.03 — a spread that reflects localized tightness in Gulf-origin supply more than global demand strength. Positioning signals point to bearish sentiment in Dubai crude driven by storage dynamics, even as the spot premium persists.
Goldman Sachs expected crude to hold most of its July gains through August 2026, supported by lower Middle East production and declining global inventories, according to reporting from July 23, 2026 (2026-07-23).5 With ICE Brent front-month still above $105 on Monday (2026-09-14), that forecast has broadly held. Whether Houthi targeting expands beyond Saudi-flagged vessels, or diplomatic progress on Hormuz re-opens supply routes before winter heating demand builds, will set the next directional move for crude.