HSBC Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast to $90 While Its Recovery Scenario Points to $70s by 2028
HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 but warns a Q4 ceasefire could swing markets to a 3 million barrel-per-day surplus and push prices toward the $70s.
HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast by $10 per barrel to $90, citing a Hormuz crisis that has tightened supply with no clear path to resolution, while simultaneously setting out a recovery scenario in which a durable ceasefire in the fourth quarter of 2026 could push Gulf exports back near pre-conflict volumes, flip the market into a surplus above 3 million barrels per day in 2027, and drag ICE Brent front-month prices into the $70s per barrel by the first quarter of 2028. The note, co-authored by HSBC Senior Global Oil and Gas Analyst Kim Fustier, was sent to Rigzone on Tuesday (2026-09-08).7,8
ICE Brent front-month was last priced at $104.32 per barrel as of September 12, 2026, some $14 above HSBC's own raised annual average forecast, indicating the spot market carries more geopolitical premium than the bank's base case accounts for.8
The flow arithmetic explains why HSBC chose to upgrade rather than downgrade. Fustier estimated current Hormuz throughput at around 6 million barrels per day, rising to roughly 8 million bpd by year-end and 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027. Pre-war, the strait handled 19 to 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products. At HSBC's mid-2027 trajectory, flows would still be less than half of pre-conflict norms, sustaining supply tightness for close to another year.8
How tight is a question with a wide error bar. Some tracking data suggest current Hormuz throughput may be closer to 10 million barrels per day, roughly 67% above HSBC's estimate. Even on that more generous reading, flows remain around half their pre-war level, doing little to alter the medium-term supply picture.8
HSBC's recovery scenario requires only one thing: a durable ceasefire by late 2026. If that occurs, total Gulf exports could recover near pre-conflict levels, returning the market to balance by year-end and shifting it into a surplus exceeding 3 million barrels per day through 2027. ICE Brent front-month would fall to the $70s per barrel by Q1 2028 under that path, the bank said.7
Markets had begun that trade in June. After the signing of a U.S.-Iran interim agreement and a concurrent Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, ICE Brent front-month shed roughly 8% across the week of June 15 (2026-06-15), settling at $80.51 per barrel by Friday (2026-06-19) as Hormuz shipments picked up, Reuters reported. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $90 after President Trump announced the Hormuz reopening agreement, with a formal signing scheduled for Friday (2026-06-19).2,3
The slide accelerated into late June. Rystad Energy noted on Thursday (2026-06-25) that shut-in Gulf production had fallen to 9.6 million barrels per day, down from 11.7 million bpd just three weeks earlier, with ICE Brent front-month trading around $73 per barrel near a three-month low at the time.4
But recovery stalled. By September 2026, ICE Brent front-month had climbed back above $100, and HSBC's September upgrade reflects a market that rebuilt the war premium as Hormuz flows failed to normalise at the pace June optimism implied.8
Other banks remain spread across the outcome space. Citi assigned a 60% probability to its base case of sustained flow normalisation, with prices trending to $60 to $65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 — a sharper bear case than HSBC's. Commerzbank trimmed its year-end Brent target to $80 per barrel from $85 in June, expecting prices to stay above pre-war levels for most of the coming year. Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecasts for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, noting that a 2 to 3 million bpd surplus it had modelled before the conflict would quickly reassert itself once flows recover.1,5
Goldman Sachs projects a 2027 global surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day but expects ICE Brent and WTI to hold near long-term equilibrium levels of $75 and $70 per barrel respectively, implying a softer price floor than Citi sees. The bank estimated Hormuz recovery reaching around 70% of pre-war levels, implying throughput of roughly 13 to 14 million barrels per day.3,6
Any formal agreement would also release more than 85 million barrels of oil estimated to be stranded in the Middle East Gulf, analysts noted. That inventory overhang would compress the timeline for the market to swing from deficit to surplus.1
Whether a Q4 ceasefire framework materialises is now the single variable separating HSBC's extended tightness case from Citi's sub-$65 scenario for early 2027. With Hormuz still running at roughly half pre-war capacity, any diplomatic breakthrough before year-end carries more downside price risk than the current spot level of $104 per barrel suggests.8,1