Venezuela Moves Toward OPEC Exit as US Secures 100-Year Oil Lease
A proposed US deal for majority control of Venezuelan oil fields threatens to strip OPEC of another founding member, weeks after Saudi Arabia halted its output increases.
Venezuela is in active discussions with Washington about leasing its most productive oil fields to the United States for 100 years, and people familiar with the talks say Caracas is closely examining whether to quit OPEC as part of that arrangement, according to reporting from Bloomberg and multiple outlets in late August (2026-08-27). No final decision has been made, those people said. But the conversations are real, they are ongoing, and they involve US officials directly.4,35
The proposed deal would give a new jointly owned US-North American private company access to roughly a fifth of Venezuela's oil reserves, according to reporting by The New Arab published on September 1 (2026-09-01). Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. That the country with the biggest resource base in the world is now negotiating a century-long lease to a foreign government is a measure of how far Caracas has fallen — and how much leverage Washington has gained.7,3
Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July, according to a Bloomberg survey, less than half what it produced a decade ago and well below its 1998 peak of 3.5 million barrels a day, according to Briefs.co.2,6 The country's OPEC quota has been largely irrelevant for years given that output, but the political symbolism of an exit would land hard. Venezuela was one of the cartel's founders more than six decades ago. Losing it, especially to a deal structured around US control, rewrites the story OPEC tells about itself.2
The timing compounds the damage. The UAE left OPEC earlier this year — Abu Dhabi's energy minister said in May (2026-05-16) the decision followed a comprehensive assessment of national production policy and was not political, CNBC reported. But the effect was political regardless of the stated rationale. The UAE, before recent constraints, was producing just over 3 million barrels a day and has targeted capacity of 4.9 million barrels a day, per the same reporting. Losing that scale of potential supply discipline was already a blow to OPEC's credibility as a volume-management body.1
OPEC+ responded at its September 6 (2026-09-06) meeting by keeping production unchanged for October, stepping back from the monthly increases it had been implementing for the prior six months, according to San.com. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will hold at current levels.8 ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $104.28 a barrel as of 12:47 UTC on September 11 (2026-09-11), up 0.10% on the session.
The pause in increases buys time, but it does not resolve the underlying problem. Analysts cited in forward-looking coverage have noted that OPEC+ currently has limited power over the physical oil market when members are defecting or operating outside quota discipline. Adding Venezuela to that list — even as a non-member rather than a quota-breaker — shrinks the coalition's geographic and political reach further.8
Some analysts view the Venezuela arrangement as part of what they describe as Trump's broader "Donroe Doctrine," an effort to expand US political and economic influence across the Western Hemisphere, according to reporting published on August 27 (2026-08-27). Whether that framing holds depends heavily on whether Caracas actually commits to exiting OPEC and whether US and international oil companies gain the operating room to reverse Venezuela's production decline.3
That reversal is not quick or cheap. Getting Venezuelan output back to anywhere near its 1998 peak of 3.5 million barrels a day would require years of capital investment in fields that have deteriorated under state mismanagement and sanctions. Even at 1.16 million barrels a day in July (2026-07), the country is a marginal OPEC contributor. But a formal exit, aligned with US control of its upstream assets, would give Washington and Riyadh a new dynamic to manage — one where Venezuela's barrels are no longer subject to OPEC quota negotiations and could theoretically be ramped up outside cartel oversight.2,6
Saudi Arabia's decision to pause OPEC+ increases for October suggests Riyadh is reading the supply picture cautiously. Whether Caracas formally announces an OPEC departure before the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is the near-term marker to watch.8,4