ICE Brent Crude Holds Above $104 as Equity Markets Absorb US-Iran Airstrikes
Crude held above $100 and equities took fresh US-Iran escalation with fractional losses, leaving Hormuz reopening as the main price variable.
ICE Brent crude front-month was priced at $104.32 a barrel as of 2026-09-12, with NYMEX WTI front-month at $99.99, as crude closed the week above the $100 level it first broke on the morning of Monday (2026-05-18) — a four-year high driven by US-Israel-Iran escalation — before settling back once President Trump described the situation as "very complete."2
The latest significant leg came on Monday (2026-08-10), when oil rose 5% on uncertainty about when the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and restore the global flow of crude. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% from its all-time high set on Friday (2026-08-07), the Dow dipped 60 points or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%.5
Thursday (2026-07-09) showed how decisively equity markets have separated from crude's supply risk. The US launched new airstrikes against Iran, and Iran responded by targeting US allies in the Middle East. The S&P 500 still rose 0.1% early in that session, the Dow slipped just 33 points, and the Nasdaq added 0.1%.4 ICE Brent crude front-month slipped 0.3% that same day, having surged sharply the session before.4
Futures told the same story before the open on Thursday (2026-07-09). S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, Dow futures fell 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%.4 S&P 500 earnings per share are on track to show a 50% leap in the spring quarter from a year earlier for index constituents, according to FactSet — which provides much of the cushion.5
Europe absorbed the same headlines with similar calm. At midday on 2026-07-09, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.3%, and Germany's DAX traded 0.1% higher.4 DAX companies posted a 5% rise in first-quarter earnings compared with the year-earlier period, insulating the index against the higher energy cost implied by crude above $100.1
Asia offered a sharper single-session recovery. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.4% to 67,743.85 on 2026-07-09, reversing part of earlier losses.4 When US strikes on southern Iran were first reported on Tuesday (2026-05-26), shares were mixed across Europe and Asia after the US military described them as "self-defense" strikes targeting missile launch sites and boats placing mines.3
ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 3.31% to €79.51 on 2026-09-11, while THE M+1 dropped 3.27% to €80.55, even as oil was rising 5% earlier in August on Hormuz uncertainty.5 European gas has been softening through the same stretch that crude climbed back above $100, a split driven by storage and weather. VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84 as of 2026-09-12, gold was at $4,348.35 per ounce, and the dollar index sat at 99.09 — none pointing to a funding squeeze or flight-to-safety surge.
JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, was at $24.88 per MMBtu on 2026-09-12, up just 0.28%, showing that Chinese demand growth has not pulled LNG prices higher alongside crude. The cross-sector linkage between Chinese demand, JKM, and ICE Brent crude front-month that dominated earlier sentiment has largely gone quiet.5
Monday (2026-08-10) set the template: crude up on Hormuz uncertainty, equities down fractionally, no capitulation in either direction.5 A clear timeline for the strait's reopening would be the most direct route to removing the supply-side bid from crude. But a further closure, after the partial reopening already priced in, is the tail risk that would test whether the equity composure held through July and August can survive a second shock.4,5