Southeast Asia's LNG import needs test supply growth as global trade stalls
Regional demand fundamentals in Southeast Asia collide with stalled 2026 trade volumes and an infrastructure gap that new supply alone cannot close.
Southeast Asia is emerging as a counterweight to weaker liquefied natural gas demand across Asia-Pacific. Population growth, rising living standards and depletion of domestic gas reserves are strengthening the region's case for expanded imports and infrastructure, with industry players pushing for accelerated investment to cover an annual import requirement estimated at 122 million tons.7
The push confronts a difficult trade environment. Shell, the world's largest trader of the superchilled fuel, said on June 30 (2026-06-30) that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from the Iran war could keep 2026 LNG trade flat, even though the company had previously expected volumes to increase from the 422 million metric tons reached in 2025.2 If Hormuz shipping normalizes this year, Shell says traded volumes could still match last year's total.4
Asian LNG imports for the first half of 2026 fell nearly 4% to 127.70 million tons compared with the corresponding period last year, according to analytics firm Kpler.2 The decline shows how much near-term buying across the region depends on price and broader economic conditions.
Southeast Asia bucks that slide. Forecasts show South and Southeast Asia will account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 as countries seek lower-emission alternatives to coal to meet rapidly growing energy demand.2 Domestic gas production in emerging Asian countries is expected to decline even as demand rises, leaving the region needing around 300 million tons of LNG per year to cover total demand by mid-century.2
Malaysia illustrates the pressure building at the country level. The energy commission said on May 27 (2026-05-27) that warmer weather and data centres would continue to drive power demand this year, with Malaysia tapping offshore gas reserves to meet record electricity consumption while reducing coal use.1
Shell's long-range forecast puts the investment case in perspective. The company's LNG Outlook 2026 projects global demand rising around 65% from 2025 levels to nearly 700 million tons a year by 2050, with Asia doing most of the heavy lifting.3 Around 180 million tonnes of new annual LNG supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, which Shell says should improve affordability and open up demand in new markets.3 Supply growth helps only where regasification infrastructure already exists to receive it.
Türkiye is adding that capacity. State energy company BOTAŞ started construction on July 13 (2026-07-13) of a fourth storage tank at its Marmaraereğlisi LNG terminal in northwestern Türkiye, a 160,000-cubic-meter addition that will boost the facility's storage capacity by nearly 60%.6
The United States became the world's largest LNG exporter in the first quarter of 2024, overtaking Qatar, and shipped 110.74 million tons last year.5 Asia Pacific imported 168.7 million tons from the global market in the same period and Europe 126.2 million tons.5 A single LNG project typically costs between $8 billion and $15 billion.5
Shell's own trading book reflects the market it is positioning for. The company's LNG sales rose 11% last year to 72.9 million metric tons, according to its annual report.4
Analysts expect higher prices to curb South Asian demand if regasification investment lags, with buyers switching to alternative LNG sources or reverting to coal and domestic gas — the fuels the region's import strategy is designed to displace. The forecast that South and Southeast Asia will need around 300 million tons of LNG per year by 2050 hinges on terminals being built before demand outpaces the infrastructure available to serve it.2