ADNOC Keeps Loading LNG as Hormuz Strikes Continue and Bypass Pipeline Lags
Satellite data confirm Emirati LNG shipments persisting through the Gulf even as the strait's only bypass route sits half-built.
ADNOC is still loading liquefied natural gas in the Persian Gulf despite the latest exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran, Bloomberg reported on Friday (2026-09-04), citing satellite imaging data showing at least one tanker docked at a Gulf terminal. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $96.24 per barrel, up 0.33% on the day.7
The persistence of loadings illustrates the gap between tactical continuity and structural vulnerability. The UAE has redirected some oil exports through an existing pipeline to the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, which carries a maximum capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day. But a second bypass pipeline — one that would materially reduce the country's exposure to Hormuz disruptions — was only around 50% complete as of late May (2026-05-20), according to ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. There is no comparable bypass route for LNG.1
The strait has been under sustained pressure since at least mid-August (2026-08-17), when UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a projectile striking the hull of a vessel in or around the chokepoint. That incident followed tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran in July, with Iran arguing that ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon had voided whatever informal arrangement had existed.6
Dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz reached 65.2% of all recorded transits at their peak in May, accounting for 57% across the full observed period, according to a CSIS analysis published on August 5 (2026-08-05). Commercial operators have not stopped moving cargoes; they have simply stopped signalling their movements.3,5
Qatar's LNG exports have continued as well. Reuters data, cited by OilPrice.com on June 9 (2026-06-09), showed five Qatari LNG cargoes clearing the Strait of Hormuz since the start of hostilities, including one that transited during the week of June 8 (2026-06-08). JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $24.09 per MMBtu on Friday (2026-09-04), unchanged on the day — suggesting physical flows have, so far, been sufficient to prevent a dislocation in delivered prices to northeast Asia.3
But the tolerance embedded in those price levels may not survive a sustained intensification. Al Jaber said in late May (2026-05-20) that more than one billion barrels of oil have been lost due to the strait's closure, with nearly 100 million additional barrels lost for every week Hormuz remains blocked. Even if the conflict ended immediately, he said, it would take at least four months to ramp oil flows back to 80% of normal levels.1
Iran's conditions for any settlement have included guaranteed safe passage through Hormuz, according to statements attributed to Iranian officials reported by the Daily Asian Age on May 18 (2026-05-18). President Trump rejected Iran's initial response to a US peace proposal, deepening concerns that the standoff would drag on.2
The broader diplomatic picture offers limited comfort. Saudi Arabia has agreed to host a regional summit between Arab states and Iran, but no date has been confirmed and it is unclear whether the UAE would attend, according to Foreign Policy reporting from July 1 (2026-07-01). Riyadh faced fewer attacks than many Gulf neighbours, giving it more room to engage.4
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas settled at €71.95 per MWh on Friday (2026-09-04), up 0.26%, while THE M+1 traded at €73.22 per MWh, up 0.29%. European prices have stayed elevated partly on persistent uncertainty about alternative supply routes. Any reduction in Qatari LNG throughput tightens Atlantic basin supply, supporting European hub prices regardless of pipeline gas flows from elsewhere.3,5
Gold futures stood at $4,479.16 per ounce on Friday (2026-09-04), up 1.32% on the day. Gold posted a 44% gain over a period coinciding with the conflict's most acute phase, according to OilPrice.com data cited in the same June report — a move that traces the escalation arc more plainly than any single crude print.3
The immediate question is how long ADNOC can sustain loadings as strike activity intensifies. The Fujairah pipeline limits oil bypass capacity to 1.8 million barrels per day, with no LNG bypass route operational. Until the second pipeline reaches completion — a process Al Jaber pegged at months away even from its May (2026-05-20) status — the physical exposure of Gulf LNG exports to Hormuz interdiction stays unchanged.1,7