Qatar Counts $24 Billion in Lost LNG Revenue Six Months After Iranian Strikes on Ras Laffan
Reuters data show exports fell 96%, with ExxonMobil estimating repairs at up to five years on the two damaged production trains.
ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 3.14% to €71.96/MWh by 08:15 UTC on Wednesday (2026-09-02), extending a six-month premium that has tracked the near-total shutdown of Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial complex, the world's single largest LNG-producing site. Reuters calculations, reported by OilPrice.com on Wednesday (2026-08-26), showed Qatar has lost $24 billion in LNG sales since Iranian forces struck the facility in March, with exports falling by as much as 96%.8
Before the conflict, Qatar was the world's second-largest LNG exporter. The US-Iran dispute removed that supply abruptly. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz immediately withdrew a significant share of globally traded LNG from the market, OGJ reported on Monday (2026-06-08), repricing spot cargoes in Europe and Asia to levels sustained by scarcity rather than demand growth.3,8
The damage at Ras Laffan came in stages. QatarEnergy curtailed output in early March 2026 as tensions escalated. On March 19, Iranian missiles struck the complex directly, hitting Trains 4 and 6. Those two units total 12.8 million tonnes per annum of nameplate capacity, representing roughly 17% of Qatar's total LNG exports. Both are joint ventures with ExxonMobil: Train 4 structured at 66% QatarEnergy and 34% ExxonMobil, Train 6 at 70% and 30% respectively.1
QatarEnergy disclosed on March 19 that the damage would cost the company approximately $20 billion per year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair. ExxonMobil, holding equity in both damaged trains, has independently indicated a three-to-five-year repair window, according to analyst Sergey Kaufman cited by Iz.ru on Wednesday (2026-05-27).1,4,2
The contract cascade was immediate. Italian energy company Edison, holding a long-term agreement for 6.4 billion cubic metres of Qatari gas per year, received no further cargoes after March 2026. By late May, QatarEnergy extended its force majeure notice on European deliveries to mid-August. Under Edison's contract alone, 17 cargoes totalling around 2.2 billion cubic metres had been impacted by the extended shutdown.1
Recovery timelines have shifted repeatedly. In the week of June 15, 2026, QatarEnergy told buyers it could restore roughly 50% of production capacity within a month of Hormuz reopening to Qatari tankers, and 80% within two months, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. Both figures hinge entirely on unobstructed strait transit.4
A second incident then darkened the picture. An explosion at Ras Laffan on Sunday (2026-06-21) killed 13 people and injured 66 more. Qatar's government said the blast would not disrupt LNG exports, and three empty carriers were being recalled to the facility in preparation for a restart. But with ongoing repairs at the complex and transit uncertainty unresolved, those signals have been difficult to act on commercially.4,5
Downstream markets have scrambled to compensate. Pakistan, facing rising power demand, has been purchasing additional LNG from Qatar and the spot market since the Hormuz closure began. As of mid-July 2026, the Pakistani government was finalising plans to purchase at least one spot cargo for July delivery and as many as six for August, Bloomberg reported.6
European buyers have had fewer alternatives. THE M+1 reached €73.33/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-02), and analysis from Iz.ru published on Wednesday (2026-05-27) warned that European countries would face elevated gas prices for at least six months even if the Middle East conflict resolved immediately — a forecast the subsequent six months have proved conservative.2
Qatar's long-term competitive position is not in doubt from a cost standpoint. CSIS analysis published on Wednesday (2026-08-05) described the country as the world's lowest-cost LNG supplier with unmatched pricing competitiveness, adding that those advantages hold once Hormuz transit becomes predictable again. North Field East targets 33 mtpa of new capacity; North Field South adds another 16 mtpa. Both projects could resume construction after a 12-to-18-month delay if the strait normalises, CSIS assessed, with Qatar returning aggressively via discounted long-term contracts and competitive spot cargoes. QatarEnergy's US-based Golden Pass terminal, producing approximately 12.6 mtpa and routing around Hormuz entirely, represents a volume roughly equivalent to the combined output lost from Trains 4 and 6.7
The number buyers are working against is ExxonMobil's three-to-five-year repair estimate on the damaged trains. If the upper end holds, Qatar's absence will outlast the emergency supply arrangements currently covering the gap for European and Asian importers. How long Hormuz stays contested is the one variable the market cannot price.2,7