Asian Spot LNG Holds Above $23 as Hormuz Closure Sustains Supply Squeeze Into September
Six months of Hormuz disruptions have removed 20% of global LNG supply and pushed buyers from Pakistan to Japan into emergency spot purchases at elevated prices.
JKM, the benchmark for Asian spot LNG, held at $23.61 per million British thermal units on Wednesday (2026-09-02), while ICE Endex TTF front-month gas climbed 3.14% to €71.96 per megawatt-hour in early European trading, six months after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28 (2026-02-28) and triggered a wave of emergency spot buying that has yet to fully unwind.1
The closure removed over 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supply, roughly 20% of traded volumes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The bulk of that loss came from Qatar's Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export terminal, which was forced to cut operations as tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf choke point stopped.1
The initial price shock was sharp. Asian spot LNG hit $25.40 per million British thermal units in early March (2026-03-04), a three-year high, as buyers scrambled for alternative supply, according to traders. European prices followed as Atlantic Basin cargoes were redirected: ICE Endex TTF rose 35% to $14.80 per million British thermal units for the week ending April 24 (2026-04-24), EIA data show.6,1
The market eased partially before fresh escalation returned in mid-July. Asian spot LNG jumped 10% in the week to Thursday, July 17 (2026-07-17), climbing to its highest level since late March as Middle East hostilities intensified and Hormuz tanker traffic approached a near-halt again, OilPrice.com and TRT World reported. Traders told Bloomberg that the Asian spot price was $20.2 per million British thermal units on July 17 (2026-07-17).4,2
Pakistan has borne the most visible cost among emerging-market buyers. Having managed surplus LNG cargoes in 2025, the country was paying $20.70 per million British thermal units for spot deliveries by mid-July (2026-07-15), its costliest spot purchase since 2022, traders told Bloomberg. The abrupt shift exposes how dependent Pakistan had become on Qatari supply routed through Hormuz and how little procurement buffer it held.3
The contrast with U.S. domestic gas prices has been striking throughout. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month fell 9% after the February 28 (2026-02-28) closure, the EIA said, reflecting limited near-term export capacity and ample domestic storage. Henry Hub was at $2.95 per million British thermal units on September 2 (2026-09-02), a fraction of what Asian and European buyers are paying.1
That divergence partly reflects a hard physical ceiling on incremental Atlantic LNG flows. U.S. export terminals were running at 94% of DOE-approved maximum capacity in March (2026-03), the EIA said, up from 91% in February when volumes ran at an estimated 17.3 billion cubic feet per day. The system was already near its operational limits before the crisis began, leaving little capacity to absorb the Qatari shortfall.1
Before February 28 (2026-02-28), Europe had been pulling the majority of spot LNG cargoes, supported by depleting gas inventories and solid demand that offered better netbacks than a slow Asian market. The Hormuz closure reversed that pattern almost immediately, as the loss of Qatari supply and the scramble for replacement cargoes shifted the Atlantic-Pacific arbitrage in Asia's favour, traders said.5
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $95.26 per barrel on September 2 (2026-09-02), up 0.37%. But oil's relative calm sits alongside continued gas market stress. JKM at $23.61 on September 2 (2026-09-02) remains below the $25.40 peak from early March (2026-03-04). Whether it approaches that level again depends on how much further Hormuz shipping access deteriorates and whether any resumed Qatari export flows can reach buyers who have so far been unable to replace long-term contracted supply.6,2