Explosions Reported at Bandar Abbas as Hormuz Traffic Collapses Again

Explosions Reported at Bandar Abbas as Hormuz Traffic Collapses Again Iran's Mehr agency says the situation at the key naval port is under control, but vessel tracking showed traffic slowing to a near standstill after the latest escalation. Explosions were heard in Iran, with the state-linked Mehr news agency saying the situation at Bandar Abbas was under control. Bandar Abbas sits at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. Any military activity at the port directly threatens the narrow waterway through which 20% of global oil and a similar share of LNG normally transits. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill after the latest escalation, vessel tracking data showed. Just one ship exited the Gulf while two entered over the monitoring period. The traffic collapse followed a sharp escalation in tensions between Iran and the United States that raised fresh doubts over the durability of any ceasefire.⁴ The US struck Iranian targets as fragile Hormuz talks continued. Trump approved strikes after a last-minute assessment of Iranian military positions. ICE Brent crude front-month briefly touched $119 before reversing lower after Israel said it was helping reopen the waterway, ending the session at $108.65. NYMEX WTI crude front-month slipped to $96.14.¹ Iran's regime has picked a new supreme leader following the assassination of senior leadership figures. The leadership transition weakens Iran's command structure but at a cost that may harden the regime's posture rather than soften it. The new leadership has every incentive to demonstrate strength.² ICE Brent crude dropped about 14% after Trump paused planned strikes and said Washington was holding talks linked to the conflict. But every pause has been followed by escalation. The pattern has repeated through five rounds of diplomacy. Each time, the market sells on peace hopes and buys back on reality.³ The front-month gas price at ICE Endex TTF traded up over 11% at around EUR 61 per MWh on the same day. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was 1.7% higher at $3.116. NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month rose almost 1% to $3.13, hitting a nearly four-year high. The war premium extends across the energy complex.¹ QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the Iran attack took out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. That damage is physical and permanent regardless of what happens at Bandar Abbas.¹ What to watch is whether the Bandar Abbas incident produces a sustained closure of Hormuz traffic or whether it follows the pattern of escalation followed by tentative resumption. If vessel tracking shows zero exits from the Gulf for 48 hours following the explosions, the market reprices the entire ceasefire thesis.⁴