US drew a record 10m barrels from the SPR last week as Hormuz tankers finally move

US drew a record 10m barrels from the SPR last week as Hormuz tankers finally move The largest weekly Strategic Petroleum Reserve withdrawal on record signals how thin US buffers have grown, even as Brent has since slid back to the mid-$90s. The US Energy Information Administration said the country pulled nearly 10 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the week of 2026-05-11, the largest weekly withdrawal ever recorded.¹ That matters because the SPR is the buffer of last resort, and tapping it at record speed is what governments do when commercial supply cannot keep up. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled oil and LNG flows accounting for a large share of seaborne energy trade, has stayed largely closed for more than two months since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran. With that chokepoint shut, the US has been draining stocks instead of importing replacements.^1,5⁶ Commercial inventories tell the same story. The American Petroleum Institute estimated US crude stocks fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ending 2026-05-15, against analyst expectations of a 3.4 million-barrel draw and a 2.188 million-barrel decline the week before. Four consecutive weeks of declines have pulled combined crude and product reserves down by 52 million barrels.^3,5 The drawdowns are not confined to America. The International Energy Agency warned that the world is releasing oil at a record pace, with 164 million barrels drained from government and industry stocks as of 2026-05-08. Rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruption, the agency said, may herald future price spikes.⁶ Wood Mackenzie put the mechanism plainly. Three weeks before its 2026-05-20 note, President Donald Trump had said "massive numbers" of empty tankers were heading to the US to load crude and products, and that fleet has now begun moving barrels. Falling domestic inventories, Wood Mackenzie wrote, are putting upward pressure on fuel prices.⁴ So far the price action has refused to follow the panic script. Brent crude futures fell about 5% to $105.61 a barrel on 2026-05-20 after Trump again asserted the Iran war would end "very quickly," even as traders stayed wary of the peace talks. The day before that, Brent had recovered, gaining 81 cents to $105.83 while WTI added 97 cents to $99.23, on the same inventory fears.^2,1 The reason for the choppiness is sitting in the Gulf. Three supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 2026-05-20 carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Middle East crude bound for Asia, after waiting more than two months for safe passage. Every cargo that clears the strait chips away at the supply-shock premium.² That tension defines the trade. Citi told clients on 2026-05-19 it expected Brent to reach $120 a barrel in the near term, arguing markets were underpricing the risk of a prolonged disruption, and Wood Mackenzie estimated prices could approach $200 if the closure persists. PVM warned global stocks could hit critically low levels.² The starkest framing came from Gunvor. Frederic Lasserre, head of analysis at the trading house, told an industry conference in late April that if the Hormuz closure dragged on another month, oil markets would effectively run out of stockpiles and hit "tank bottoms." That month is now up.⁵ What has changed since those warnings is the price itself. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $94.86 on 2026-06-05, and WTI at $93.00, both roughly $10 below the levels that prevailed when the SPR record was set in mid-May. The market is pricing reopening, not catastrophe.^2,1 That is the unresolved bet. If the tankers crossing Hormuz mark a durable reopening, the inventory hole gets refilled and the $120-to-$200 scenarios fade. If passage stalls again with buffers this thin, there is little cushion left to absorb the next shock. Watch the count of vessels clearing the strait and the next EIA stock report; with reserves drawn this hard, the move when it comes is more likely to be non-linear than orderly.^2,6⁵