German 11 GW Gas Buildout Joins $60B US Upstream M&A Wave

German 11 GW Gas Buildout Joins $60B US Upstream M&A Wave Gas-fired capacity additions are accelerating globally, with NYMEX gas at $2.96 and LNG departures up 26 Bcf in a week signalling tightening export pull. The German cabinet approved legislation to proceed with 11 GW of new gas-fired power plant capacity, Montel reported. The measure requires parliamentary approval on a compressed timeline. The decision locks Germany into gas-dependent generation for at least the next decade, adding structural import demand to a global gas market already tightened by the Hormuz crisis.⁴ NYMEX natural gas front-month June futures settled at $2.96 per million BTU on Friday, gaining 7.4% for the week on expectations of hotter weather, stronger power demand, and resilient LNG exports. Weekly LNG vessel departures hit 141 Bcf, up 26 Bcf from the prior week despite maintenance at several export terminals. The export ramp is the fastest in months.³ NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced a merger that would create the largest US electricity company since AI mainstreamed. The deal, if approved, scales generation and transmission capacity for a power market where data centre load growth is the marginal demand driver. The combined platform would be positioned to commission gas-fired capacity at a pace that smaller utilities cannot match.⁶ US upstream deal value hit $38 billion in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly total in two years, Enverus Intelligence Research reported. Over six months, total deal value exceeded $60 billion. The Devon Energy-Coterra Energy merger accounted for $25 billion. Only eight deals above $100 million were recorded in the quarter, tying a post-2020 low. Capital is concentrating at the top.⁵ Working gas in US storage fell by 52 Bcf for the week, well below the five-year average withdrawal of 168 Bcf. Inventories are 141 Bcf higher than a year ago, roughly 8% above last year. The domestic balance is comfortable. But every Bcf of LNG that departs for Europe is a Bcf that does not enter domestic storage, and 11 GW of new German gas plants will need fuel for decades.^1,2 Comstock Resources, with 100% natural gas production, carries a Zacks consensus estimate for 2026 EPS indicating a 37% year-over-year surge. The estimate prices in gas near current levels through summer. A sustained break above $3 on summer heat and export pull makes the estimate conservative. A retreat below $2.75 triggers revisions.² The Supreme Court settled the Texas-New Mexico Rio Grande water dispute, requiring New Mexico to forfeit 5.9 billion gallons of groundwater annually to ensure Texas receives its full share. For gas-heavy resource plans in the region, water availability for cooling and processing is a background constraint that rarely reaches the commodity desk but shapes project economics.⁷ What to watch is whether German parliamentary approval comes before the session closes, and whether LNG departures sustain above 141 Bcf weekly through the summer. If both hold, the structural demand case for NYMEX Henry Hub front-month above $3 strengthens from domestic power burn, European import pull, and upstream consolidation positioning for exactly that outcome.^4,3