German Q2 Power Could Jump 17% and Gas 40% as the Energy Crisis Drives Costs Higher

German Q2 Power Could Jump 17% and Gas 40% as the Energy Crisis Drives Costs Higher Analysts see German spot power rising 17% year on year and gas averaging €46.35/MWh, up 40%, with only a solar boost and softer demand keeping the increases from being worse. German power and gas prices are set to climb sharply on the year, pulled up by a gas crisis that is rippling through the continent's largest power market. German Q2 spot power prices could surge 17% year on year amid the current crisis affecting gas, with gas itself soaring 40%, analysts told Montel.¹ The forecast matters because Germany is the price-setting heart of the European power system, and a move of that scale signals tighter, costlier conditions across the interconnected market. The gas number is the engine of the move. Analysts forecast Q2 German gas prices to average €46.35 per MWh, up €13.20, or 40%, from the second quarter of 2025.¹ Because gas-fired plants frequently set the marginal price in the German market, a 40% rise in the fuel feeds directly into power prices, which is why the two are moving together.¹ The increases would be larger still without two offsetting forces. A boost in solar power and lower demand should limit the gains, analysts said, capping what would otherwise be a steeper rise.¹ That tension — a gas crisis pushing prices up while solar generation and demand destruction pull them down — defines the current German market and explains why the net move is 17% rather than something closer to the 40% gas jump.¹ The backdrop is a broad energy crisis, not a German-specific one. The world is entering a new energy crisis the like of which has not been seen since the 1970s, with European and Asian gas prices at all-time highs and oil at a three-year high.³ German power prices are one expression of that continent-wide gas squeeze rather than an isolated national event.³ The physical mechanism that tightens the German system is weather-driven and recurring. Germany's power margin — the available supply to meet demand — drops sharply when low wind speeds and colder weather strain the system, and in those periods prices rise as the market tightens.⁴ A renewable-heavy grid swings between surplus on sunny, windy days and scarcity when the wind drops, and the Q2 forecast captures the costlier side of that volatility.⁴ The structural demand trend reinforces the pressure over the longer run. Global power demand is set to grow by more than 3% per year on average over the rest of the decade, with coal's share eroded by gains in nuclear, renewables and natural gas, according to the IEA.² Rising demand met increasingly by gas keeps the German market exposed to exactly the gas-price swings driving the Q2 surge.² For traders the German market is the cleanest read on European power tightness. With gas setting the margin and the crisis keeping European gas at record levels, German power becomes the barometer of how much the gas squeeze is costing the wider system, even as solar and demand softness blunt the peak.^1,3 The 17% power and 40% gas figures are the current measure of that cost.¹ The signal to watch is whether the solar boost and demand softness keep capping the increases, or whether a low-wind, high-demand stretch lets the gas-driven surge run closer to its full 40%.^4,1 If renewables and weak demand hold, German power rises but stays contained; if the gas crisis deepens or the wind drops, the market tightens further and the 17% forecast becomes a floor rather than a ceiling.³