QatarEnergy Force Majeure Extended to Mid-June as Second Hormuz Transit Attempt Fails

QatarEnergy Force Majeure Extended to Mid-June as Second Hormuz Transit Attempt Fails Italy's Edison loses 10 cargoes at the Adriatic terminal while the Mihzem turns back laden with 178,000 cubic metres of stranded LNG. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Edison at Italy's Adriatic LNG Terminal until mid-June, Montel reported. Ten cargoes will not arrive. The declaration, first issued March 4, has now been in continuous force for nearly three months.¹ That matters because it followed the closest thing to good news the LNG market has seen since the strait closed. On Sunday, vessel-tracking data showed QatarEnergy's first LNG cargo transiting Hormuz since the war began. One analyst called it an "important milestone." The milestone lasted less than a day.⁷ By Monday, Kpler data showed the Mihzem making an apparent U-turn while attempting the crossing. The vessel carries 178,000 cubic metres of LNG. It is now sitting idle. Sunday's passage was either a test run or a one-off. It was not the beginning of resumed commercial flow.² EIA data frame the disruption. Over 10 Bcf/d of global LNG supply — about 20 percent — has been taken offline, mostly from Qatar's Ras Laffan. QatarEnergy produces roughly a fifth of the world's LNG. On March 6, Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi warned the closure would "bring down the economies of the world." The Economist labelled LNG "the overlooked economic chokepoint."^3,5 ICE Endex TTF front-month reached $14.80/MMBtu for the week ending April 24, EIA data showed, 35 percent above pre-closure levels. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month fell 9 percent since February 28. US terminals ran at 94 percent of DOE-approved capacity in March, up from 91 percent and 17.3 Bcf/d in February. The American system cannot compensate for Qatari losses.³ Italy's position is competitive and losing. Analysts told Montel that Rome could replace the blocked cargoes if it outbids Asian buyers in a global spot market. But QatarEnergy's March 4 force majeure pushed Asian contract holders — who take over 80 percent of Qatari gas — onto that same spot market. Italy is bidding against importers with larger buying programmes and established procurement relationships.^8,3 Shipping feels the strain too. Korean shipbuilders face weaker LNG carrier orders as Qatar's expansion timeline is questioned. But vessel demand holds up because longer non-Hormuz routes require more ships to deliver the same volume. The fleet stretches without growing.⁴ Asian procurement has scattered globally. Buyers turned to west Africa, America, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway. Brazilian barrels for May delivery to China drew steep premiums on March 2, the Economist reported. Every alternative route adds freight cost and delivery time.⁶ Consensus leans bearish at roughly four-to-one, a bet on eventual reopening. The Mihzem's reversal argues that bet is premature. Contrarian JKM signals remain bullish on demand and supply grounds: if the strait stays closed into summer, Asian restocking faces a fifth of global supply offline. The mid-June deadline is the next binary. Extension means the market prices the disruption as semi-permanent. Lifting means Doha believes crossings have become routine. Monday's U-turn suggests which way QatarEnergy is leaning.