LNG Tanker Exits Hormuz With India Cargo But Analysts Say Further Crossings Unlikely Without Ceasefire

LNG Tanker Exits Hormuz With India Cargo But Analysts Say Further Crossings Unlikely Without Ceasefire One laden LNG vessel crossed the strait while three crude supertankers exited with trackers off, but Montel analysts warn the transit does not signal reopening. An LNG tanker carrying fuel for India successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, the first such LNG transit for India from the Persian Gulf in months. Separately, three crude oil supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Gulf crude exited the strait with their tracking systems switched off to avoid Iranian detection, according to shipping data from Kpler and LSEG.^5,3 The Strait of Hormuz disruption risk is the supply factor driving the entire market. LNG shipments through the chokepoint, which before the US-Israeli war with Iran handled around 20% of global LNG supply, came to an effective halt when the conflict began on February 28. The transit of individual cargoes does not change that calculus. Analysts told Montel that further laden LNG vessels are unlikely to pass through while there is no effective regional ceasefire.¹ Two non-laden vessels also transited, but empty ships face different risk profiles than loaded tankers. The distinction matters commercially: a ballast transit proves the route is physically navigable, not that it is commercially viable for regular laden traffic. The Hormuz chokepoint remains functionally closed for LNG trade.¹ The crude oil transits are more significant in volume. The three supertankers were carrying Iraqi and Emirati oil, with one vessel loaded with Basrah Medium heading for Asian markets. The ships had waited in the Gulf for more than two months with their 6 million barrels before attempting the exit. Disabling transponders to evade Iranian surveillance underlines how dangerous the route remains.^6,4 EIA data put the scale of the disruption in context. In 2022, the Strait of Hormuz handled an average of 21 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Between 2020 and 2022, volumes rose by 2.4 million bpd as demand recovered from COVID. The current closure has removed most of that flow.² Alternative routes exist but cannot replace Hormuz at full scale. Saudi Aramco operates a 5 million bpd East-West crude pipeline, temporarily expanded to 7 million bpd in 2019 by converting NGL lines to accept crude. The UAE connects onshore fields to Fujairah with a 1.5 million bpd pipeline. The EIA estimates around 3.5 million bpd of effective unused pipeline capacity could bypass the strait in a disruption. That covers crude. LNG has no pipeline alternative.² The LNG market damage is structural. Global consultancies have reduced supply projections by up to 35 million tonnes. Around 12.8 million tonnes of annual LNG capacity from Qatar could remain offline for three to five years due to infrastructure damage. Before the conflict, analysts expected LNG supply to grow strongly this year. Prices are now expected to remain elevated for several years.⁷ The broader market has triggered a sharp price response. Damage to Qatar's export infrastructure and the Hormuz blockade have cut global LNG supply forecasts severely, Data Biz Times reported. The disruption has been the worst in the history of global LNG trade.⁸ The next signal to watch is whether the crude tanker transits become regular or remain one-off runs with transponders off. If more laden LNG tankers follow the India cargo through the strait, it would indicate that some degree of commercial traffic is resuming under Iranian tolerance. If not, the single crossing is a data point, not a trend. Analysts are clear: without a ceasefire, Hormuz stays functionally closed for LNG.^1,5