Northwest Europe's 14-day mean sits at 20.1°C on the Sun 19 Jul run, 0.1°C colder than the previous run. The ECMWF ensemble puts the odds of a >1σ warm anomaly at 3% across the basket (days 5–10, model climatology). Storage is 53.4% full, 15.5 pp below the prior-five-year same-date average.
The last 5 runs have moved the 14-day NW-Europe mean from 20.7°C to 20.1°C — 0.7°C colder, one direction across every cycle.
The ECMWF ensemble prices the tails at 16% for a >1σ cold anomaly and 3% for a >1σ warm anomaly (days 5–10, basket mean, model climatology).
14-day mean and HDD sum per zone city, this run vs the previous run (Open-Meteo). Zones without a basket city carry no numbers.
Method. Temperature figures are 14-day means of the NW-Europe city basket (London · Amsterdam · Frankfurt · Paris) from stored Open-Meteo runs; deltas are run-to-run, and each number states its basis inline. Anomaly buckets on the map come from ECMWF's own ensemble anomaly probabilities (P(>1σ) against model climatology). LDZ arithmetic uses only owner-certified sensitivities from the site's fitted gas model — published constants, the same every day — and is omitted out of heating season. The storage comparison is deterministic arithmetic against the prior five gas years. Direction and mechanism only, site-wide; no trade calls. Missing feeds are omitted, never estimated; stale data renders desaturated with its as-of stamp.