Russia Captured a Record 50.83% of India's Oil Imports in July as US Tariff Threats Grow
Russian crude hit an all-time high share of India's imports in July 2026, but Washington's 100% tariff threat on buyers could force New Delhi to pull back and redirect flows to China.
Russian crude accounted for 50.83% of India's oil imports in July 2026, the highest share on record, with Reuters citing trade sources placing volumes at 2.47 million barrels per day — a 62.4% jump from July 2025 and by far the largest single-supplier position in the world's third-largest crude market.7
Washington is threatening 100% tariffs on imports from any country that keeps buying Russian crude. That proposal caught Indian officials by surprise and risks complicating bilateral trade negotiations already under way, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Rigzone. One analyst quoted by Rigzone warned against overreacting: "The thing is not to overreact too much based on a decision made by the US because it can change." Analysts said the episode underscored how unpredictable US trade policy has become.6
If India does pull back, Russia's ready alternative is China. As of 2025, China sourced 18% of its total oil imports from Russia, its single-largest supplier, according to China's General Administration of Customs. Russia lost most of its European market after the 2022 boycott freed up roughly 2.6 million barrels per day that once went westward, and, as Foreign Policy reported citing analysts, now needs China more than Beijing needs it.5,3,4
The scale of India's current intake makes that dynamic concrete. Since India's fiscal year started on April 1, 2026, Russian crude has averaged more than 2 million barrels per day to India, lifting Russia's share from 37% of India's imports in the comparable 2025 period to over 42%, before July's 50.83% reading pushed it significantly higher. June 2026 had been the peak in absolute volume terms at 2.6 million barrels per day. July fell back slightly in volume but set the share record.7
Other suppliers cannot easily cover the gap. The UAE shipped roughly 617,000 barrels per day to India in July 2026 and Saudi Arabia around 586,000 barrels per day, together less than half of Russia's July rate.7
Kpler tracked Russian flows to India in July 2026 at approximately 2.45 million barrels per day, close to the Reuters estimate, despite the expiry of a US sanction waiver on those flows. Indian refiners did not pull back materially after the waiver lapsed, which suggests either that enforcement remained light or that the pricing differential outweighed the legal risk.7
Historical purchasing patterns offer context on how this could shift. India's state-owned refiners made 65% of Russian crude purchases during one concentrated buying window, a pattern that Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said suggested they were being pressed toward reducing shipments afterward. Ritolia estimated that combined reductions by India, China, and Turkey could cut Russia's crude exports by 1.4 million barrels per day within a few months, a 39% drop from the baseline rate he cited.1
Russia's broader dependence on China extends beyond crude. Gazprom has announced a deal for a Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to carry 50 billion cubic metres per year of gas to China, compared with up to 180 billion cubic metres a year that once flowed to Europe, meaning the new route covers less than a third of lost European volumes. AP reported the agreement's terms remain opaque, which reflects the leverage Beijing can exercise: Russia needs the contracts; China can afford to wait.2
For crude, how US negotiators handle the India file over the coming weeks is the concrete signal to track. A tariff threat deployed as a bargaining chip is a different instrument from a hard cutoff applied uniformly. If enforcement tightens, India's state refiners face a choice between pricing they have built refinery economics around and their access to the US market — and Russian barrels would need buyers elsewhere, with China the most obvious destination.6,7,3