Hormuz Traffic Remains Suppressed While Houthis Target the Saudi Bypass Route
Physical flows through Hormuz remain well below pre-conflict levels while Houthis close the Red Sea alternative for Saudi crude.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $94.09 on Friday (2026-08-21), having recovered most of the ground it lost when the United States and Iran announced a pause in strikes on July 27 (2026-07-27). That ceasefire news sent Brent crude down more than 8% to below $88, reversing a week in which prices gained more than 9% and Brent hit $102. At $94, the price implies a degree of normalisation that tanker data through the Strait of Hormuz does not support.5
Kpler data show only five crossings through Hormuz on Wednesday (2026-08-12) and nine on Thursday (2026-08-13), against a monthly average of twelve. Vessels transiting the strait were carrying around 648,000 barrels per day in the week of August 10 (2026-08-10), down 27% from 883,000 bpd in June, according to figures cited by oilprice.com. Before the war, roughly 20% of the world's oil moved through the strait. Those flows have not recovered, even as Brent crude has drifted back toward its current level.8,75
Traders have instead been focused on U.S. inventories. Commercial stocks added over 17.4 million barrels in the week of August 3 (2026-08-03), a large build by any historical standard. But the build coincided with continued Hormuz suppression — the two data points pull in opposite directions, and U.S. inventory conditions reflect domestic refining and demand dynamics rather than any restoration of Gulf throughput.8
The more significant gap is what is happening at Bab el-Mandeb. Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon estimated that around 2.5 million barrels of Saudi crude moved through that strait daily before the Houthi campaign resumed. Saudi and UAE exports via the Red Sea route totalled around 6.8 million barrels per day — roughly half the volumes that normally flow through Hormuz — making it the principal bypass for Gulf producers when the main corridor is constrained. Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, reported on July 23 (2026-07-23), now threaten up to 4 million bpd of redirected Saudi exports that had been using this route as a substitute for disrupted Hormuz capacity, according to oilprice.com.4,32
Both corridors simultaneously under pressure represent a different supply problem than either one alone. Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot freely reroute through the Red Sea if Houthis are targeting tankers there. The resulting squeeze on Gulf crude logistics is compounding in a way that a $94 Brent price does not obviously account for.2,4
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, made a related point in a report sent to Rigzone on July 15 (2026-07-15). The market was already more vulnerable to Hormuz disruption than it was heading into the war in February, BMI argued, given seasonally low fuel inventories and peak summer demand conditions. In a follow-up report on August 3 (2026-08-03), BMI said it continues to believe a broader diplomatic understanding between the U.S. and Iran is achievable this quarter but described the outlook as highly fragile. BMI flagged Iran-Oman discussions around future governance of the strait as a sign that any durable resolution would require more than another temporary halt in hostilities.1,6
The July sequence deserves scrutiny. Brent crude surged to $100 on July 23 (2026-07-23) as Houthi attacks widened disruption across both the Red Sea and Hormuz. Six weeks later, crossings through the strait remain below the monthly average and throughput is running roughly a quarter below June levels. The ceasefire announcement pulled Brent down more than 8% in a single session, implying the market priced in a swift return to normalcy. The physical evidence since July 27 (2026-07-27) does not support that read.3,58
BMI warned in July that the U.S. would find it harder to anchor market expectations for a short-lived engagement if hostilities resumed a second time. If talks between Washington and Tehran stall, the market would re-enter a disruption with Brent already near $94, Hormuz crossings still suppressed, and the Red Sea no longer offering a clean alternative for Saudi loadings. Weekly Kpler tanker counts through both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are the numbers that would confirm whether the physical supply picture is stabilising or compressing further.1,84