Brent at $91 in August as Rystad's $180 Hormuz Scenario Falls Short
Persian Gulf flows remain below 45% of pre-war volumes, but Goldman Sachs sees Hormuz normalization ahead and a 2027 supply glut building.
ICE Brent crude front-month held at $90.93 a barrel on Tuesday (2026-08-18), essentially flat with the $90.79 it reached on Monday July 13 (2026-07-13) at the height of the latest U.S.-Iran escalation. That leaves current prices roughly half of Rystad Energy's $180 worst-case target for August and more than 25% below Goldman Sachs's $120 ceiling issued in late July. Both forecasts were explicitly conditional on disruption scenarios that have not fully played out.2,6
The gap between forecast and reality is sharper when set against the supply disruption that actually occurred. Goldman's commodity analysts, in a July 21 (2026-07-21) note cited by Bloomberg, said Persian Gulf flows had declined to below 45% of pre-war levels, a suppression severe enough to drive prices higher but apparently not sufficient to validate the extreme scenarios. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, according to cryptobriefing.com, so even partial choking of the waterway generates outsized price effects.6,4
Rystad's Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis, projected in June (2026-06-01) that only an acute re-escalation combined with a prolonged Hormuz blockage would send crude to $180. Goldman's July 21 call was conditional on the war extending and the strait staying shut. Goldman's own note qualified the $120 scenario immediately by adding that Hormuz traffic appeared to be trending toward normalization, a view that, if it holds, sharply reduces the odds of either ceiling being tested.2,6
The price path to the current level was violent. In the week ending July 11 (week of 2026-07-06), ICE Brent front-month surged 15.9%, its largest weekly gain since early March, as the United States and Iran expanded attacks that curbed energy shipments through the strait, according to thehindubusinessline.com. By Monday July 13 (2026-07-13), Brent futures had climbed $2.69, or 3.05%, to $90.79, their highest since June 11. NYMEX WTI crude was at $84.68 that session, up 2.65%.5
Those gains erased months of optimism built on shifting ground. On Thursday May 28 (2026-05-28), investors pushed WTI down 5.55% to $88.68 and Brent down 5.31% to $94.29 in Asian trading, pricing in a possible easing of tensions that might restore normal Hormuz shipping. UAE Murban crude fell 5.39% to $89.93 that same session. Brent made a near-complete round trip: down sharply on hope, then back through the same range on renewed conflict.1
Traders noted the July re-escalation came just weeks after the United States and Iran had signed an interim memorandum of understanding to halt the conflict. The MoU failed to anchor any durable repricing lower.3
Goldman's July 21 note carried a longer-run bearish argument alongside its $120 ceiling. The bank said the global race to rebuild depleted inventories would not be enough to offset what it described as a massive glut coming to market next year, contingent on Hormuz normalization continuing. Energy analysts, as reported by Gulf News on May 28 (2026-05-28), had flagged parallel concerns about damaged infrastructure and geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East weighing on any supply recovery, regardless of near-term ceasefire outcomes.6,1
The divergence between the two house forecasts is itself instructive. Rystad's $180, set in June (2026-06-01) before July escalation data arrived, assumed a worst-case blockage. Goldman's $120, set seven weeks later with flow suppression data in hand, implied a lower ceiling and balanced it with a normalization base case the bank's own analysts appeared to find more probable. Neither firm has publicly revised its conditional scenario against the current price.2,6
NYMEX WTI crude was at $84.06 a barrel on Tuesday (2026-08-18), fractionally above its July 13 (2026-07-13) session close. JKM Asian LNG held at $21.61 per MMBtu on the same date, a market that would tighten sharply if Hormuz tanker movements reversed. The number to watch is Persian Gulf flow volume: stuck at below 45% of pre-war levels as of Goldman's last published assessment, and one that either confirms the normalization the bank is forecasting or reopens the gap toward those ceiling prices in a hurry.6