ERCOT Sets Third Consecutive Peak Record as Ascend Analytics Cuts Long-Range Load Forecast
Texas hit 91 GW on July 22, but Ascend Analytics put 2030 peak well below ERCOT's own projections while interconnection delays cloud the data center story.
An Ascend Analytics report published Wednesday (2026-08-12) put ERCOT peak demand at 120 GW by 2030, growth of more than 30% above the grid's new unofficial all-time hourly high — but well below what ERCOT's own projections have implied, setting up a contest between optimistic internal targets and the external demand modelling increasingly informing investment decisions in Texas power.4
ERCOT's current record stands at 91.089 GW, set on July 22 (2026-07-22) and confirmed by the EIA in data reported by Rigzone on August 10 (2026-08-10). The previous high was 85.508 GW, reached on August 10, 2023; before that, 80.148 GW from July 20, 2022. Each of the past three years has produced a new all-time peak, making the demand growth trend in Texas hard to dispute even if the pace of future expansion is now being revised.3
The 120 GW Ascend figure looks conservative beside what ERCOT had been projecting internally. ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the grid's board on Tuesday (2026-06-02) that a prior estimate of as much as 228 GW of new capacity online by 2032 was "too high of a figure based on realistic expectations." That retreat significantly narrowed the outer boundary of the bull case.1
Dan Woodfin, ERCOT's vice president of system operations, said at the same June 2 (2026-06-02) meeting that demand could still exceed 92 GW given hotter-than-normal weather and rising load from crypto-mining facilities and data centers. The grid has already printed 91.089 GW. The gap to that threshold is now small enough to close in a single prolonged heat event.1,3
Whether longer-term demand materialises depends on how many large customers can physically connect. On Tuesday (2026-06-02), ERCOT's board approved two interconnection rule packages: one establishing a batch review process for large-load applicants, another setting new grid-access criteria for big electricity users. Jeff Billo, ERCOT's vice president of interconnection and grid analysis, said roughly 100 GW of projects could qualify for the first tranche, known as Batch Zero.1
The Oncor figures give a measure of the pipeline. About 44 GW of large-load projects in Oncor's service territory alone qualified for Batch Zero, company executives told analysts during a Thursday (2026-08-06) earnings call. An order from the Texas governor has since placed the process timeline in question, Utility Dive reported, leaving that queued load without a clear connection schedule.2
Ascend framed the 120 GW projection through the lens of supply constraints rather than demand appetite, a distinction with direct implications for real-time power pricing. The bull case on ERCOT real-time power requires demand to outpace new generation additions; if interconnection delays persist and credible load estimates keep settling toward what analysts rather than grid planners consider achievable, that outpacing happens later than near-term price action implies.4,1
The consensus view on ERCOT real-time power sits bullish, supported by three consecutive peak records and a visible pipeline of data center and industrial load. But the gap between the 120 GW Ascend projection, ERCOT's now-downgraded internal figures, and the uncertain Batch Zero timeline argues that the delivery of that demand is not linear. Markets that have priced a steep load ramp may be pricing in a pace that the interconnection queue cannot yet support.4,2,1
The next concrete signal is ERCOT's formal response to the governor's order and the resulting timeline for Batch Zero approvals. If that review extends into 2027, the 44 GW Oncor queue and the broader 100 GW Batch Zero candidate pool remain paper demand until proven otherwise.2,1