Russian LNG Exports to China Surge 28% in H1 2026 as Moscow's Production Contracts
Russian LNG deliveries to China grew by almost 28% in H1 2026 even as domestic production fell, deepening Moscow's dependence on a single buyer.
Russian LNG exports to China across all routes rose by almost 28% in the first half of 2026, according to a CNN Smart-Lab report cited in a Foreign Policy analysis published on August 12 (2026-08-12), with the southern Chinese port of Beihai emerging as a key receiving node for volumes that have moved continuously since at least August 2025.5
China is now absorbing a growing share of Russian LNG while Moscow's production is contracting. Russia produced approximately 16.5 million tons of LNG in the first half of the year, a 5.1% decline versus the same period in 2025, according to Russian federal statistics data reported by fullavantenews.com. Total gas output fell 3.2% to around 334.8 billion cubic meters by June. A near-28% export increase against a 5.1% production decline points to a straight redirect of volumes that previously found a European destination.2
Russian gas now accounts for just 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, according to data from Russia's economy ministry, while the bloc's oil imports from Russia have fallen to 3% from around 30% over the same period. That rapid exit from the European market has left China as the primary destination for seaborne Russian LNG, with Moscow holding limited options to negotiate on price.1
The Power of Siberia pipeline reinforces the scale of the pivot. In 2025, volumes through that route jumped by roughly a quarter to 38.8 billion cubic meters, exceeding the line's planned annual capacity of 38 bcm, according to devdiscourse.com. Projections compiled by fullavantenews.com call for Power of Siberia exports to grow by more than 20% again this year to hit the same capacity ceiling, under a 30-year, $400 billion deal.3,2
Yet the aggregate gas export picture is deteriorating alongside the China-specific gains. Russia's economy ministry forecasts pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union falling 10.7% from 2024 levels to 72 billion cubic meters in 2026. Total LNG exports are seen rising just 3% this year to 35.7 million metric tons, below prior official projections and well short of what the bilateral China volumes would imply if extrapolated.1
Gazprom recorded losses of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, after European revenues collapsed following the invasion of Ukraine. Those losses have not been reversed by Chinese pipeline and LNG volumes, which carry lower margins than the European contracts they replaced.1
Spot Asian LNG prices reinforce that asymmetry. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, was at $21.41 per MMBtu at Friday's (2026-08-15) close — well below the record levels European buyers paid during the 2022 supply crisis. Bearish supply signals in the JKM market, flagged by two separate analyst assessments in the available data, give Chinese buyers little incentive to offer Russia improved pricing in near-term contract talks.5
The 28% first-half growth figure warrants a sourcing note. The Foreign Policy analysis from August 12 (2026-08-12) does not detail its aggregation methodology or include vessel-level tracking data. The Beihai port flows described cover August 2025 through June 2026 and represent one documented transshipment node. The directional picture is consistent across multiple sources; the precision is not independently auditable from the material available.5
Moscow's ability to reduce dependence on China is constrained by more than pricing. Sanctioned vessels, restricted project financing, and a falling production base limit Russia's capacity to build export infrastructure with alternative buyers. Russia's economy ministry raised its oil and gas export revenue forecast for 2026 to $206.1 billion from a prior estimate of $200.3 billion, but that improvement is driven by oil: Russia plans to increase crude exports from western ports by 4% in August 2026 following unplanned refinery outages that freed up barrels. Replicating that flexibility on the gas side is harder.1,4
JKM's direction through the autumn refill season is the immediate variable for this trade. A sustained move lower from current levels would erode Russia's pricing position with Beijing further — and give China additional room to delay formalising long-term supply arrangements while Moscow's sanctions-hit Arctic LNG projects continue to struggle for financing.5