Thema Raises Norway Data Centre Power Forecast 16% as Project Pipeline Thickens
Revised estimate puts Norwegian data centre demand at 11 TWh by 2030, a figure that has moved sharply higher in just twelve months.
Norway's data centres will consume 11 terawatt-hours of electricity annually by 2030, more than triple their 3 TWh draw last year, Thema Consulting said on Wednesday (2026-08-12). The firm projects a further increase to 21 TWh by 2040.4
The revision carries its own signal. Thema's new 2030 figure is 16% above the 9.5 TWh it estimated just a year ago — an upward shift that senior consultant Anders Strand Ryssdal attributed to acceleration in the project pipeline at a political gathering in Arendal, southern Norway, on Wednesday (2026-08-12). "This reflects that a lot has happened over the past year," Ryssdal said. A 16% upward move in a four-year forecast, over twelve months, suggests underlying demand is still being discovered rather than settled.4
Norway's NO2 day-ahead power price closed at €148.66/MWh on Thursday (2026-08-13), elevated by regional hydro conditions. The structural question Thema raises lives further out on the curve. An additional 8 TWh of annual consumption arriving between 2025 and 2030 is a demand addition large enough to shift the long-dated forward market if it materialises as projected.4
Norway fits the AI infrastructure geography. Cold climate, abundant hydropower and historically stable long-term power prices have made it a target for hyperscaler and colocation expansion. The 16% upward revision in Thema's estimate within a single year suggests the project pipeline has moved faster than analysts expected even twelve months ago.4
The Nordic picture is wider than Norway alone. A July (2026-07-29) analysis by Montel Syspower estimated regional data centre demand could climb from 9 TWh in 2027 to 19 TWh by 2030 and 28 TWh by 2035, with Norway projected to account for the largest share of that growth. The two studies differ in geographic scope and baseline, but both point away from current consumption levels.3
Finland is moving in the same direction. The Finnish Data Center Association said at a Helsinki conference in May (2026-05-20) that Finnish data centre demand would more than triple to 1.2 GW by 2030 from an operational base of 368 MW, currently about 2% of Finland's total electricity consumption. FDCA director Antti Poikola noted further growth is expected as new projects advance beyond the 1.2 GW estimate. Aggregated with Norway, the Nordic regional demand increment by 2030 runs into the low tens of terawatt-hours.2
The supply side carries more confidence. Fortum CEO Markus Rauramo told Montel that renewable energy can meet growing Nordic data centre demand without new nuclear investment in the short term. That claim matters to the power market outlook because it implies the demand addition can be absorbed through renewable build rather than a step change in firm capacity, though the timing of generation build and the timing of connection remain separate questions.1
For market participants, the practical implication runs through the Norwegian and Nordic forward power market rather than the spot. Day-ahead prices respond to reservoir levels and wind output. Long-dated baseload demand commitments shift the structural picture that generators price against when offering multi-year power purchase agreements. Thema's upward revision makes the 2030 demand assumption materially larger than it was twelve months ago.4
The number most worth tracking is not 11 TWh but the revision rate itself. If Thema's estimate moved 16% higher in a single year, the next annual update will indicate whether the current round of projections has peaked or is still climbing.4