Norway Yet to Set 2027 Fixed Power Price as Spot Rates Climb
Norway's government has not announced a fixed electricity price for 2027, with NO2 day-ahead spot power clearing at €148.66 per megawatt-hour on August 13.
Norway's government had not announced a fixed electricity price for 2027 as of Wednesday (2026-08-12), Montel reported, with no resolution date in sight even as spot power pushed higher across Norwegian bidding zones. The NO2 zone cleared at €148.66 per megawatt-hour in Thursday's (2026-08-13) day-ahead session.6
The delay creates uncertainty for energy-intensive Norwegian industries whose procurement strategies depend on the rate Oslo eventually sets. It also complicates forward positioning in Nordic power markets, where participants use a government reference rate to price exposure against. A Norwegian minister stated in May (2026-05-13) that the existing fixed price mechanism prevents proper power market regulation, a position that raises questions about why the arrangement is under consideration for another year.3
Spot prices have been erratic all year. Norway's central NO3 bidding zone hit a three-year high for day-ahead delivery on April 14 (2026-04-14), a move analysts told Montel was "extremely problematic." They pointed to cross-border capacity allocation in the region's day-ahead market as the mechanism behind the spike, an arrangement that amplifies price dislocations when hydro conditions tighten.2
Hydrology is the deeper pressure. As of early May (2026-05-07), Nordic hydropower reserves sat 26 terawatt-hours below the seasonal norm, with the 14-day weather outlook pointing to drier-than-normal conditions, Montel EQ data showed. That shortfall pushed up import reliance and kept Norwegian spot rates elevated through late spring. But analysts told Montel at the time that a broad rise in European renewable output could direct more power northward and partially absorb the deficit's effect.1
Gas markets are closely linked. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €61.03 per megawatt-hour on Thursday (2026-08-13). Norwegian gas output averaged 303 million cubic meters per day in May, down from 340 million cubic meters per day in April, Norwegian Offshore Directorate data showed. When Norwegian pipeline flows drop, TTF tends to move higher — a pass-through that runs into NBP day-ahead pricing and ultimately into UK generation costs.5
Crude output has held up despite the monthly pullback. Norway produced an average of 1.722 million barrels per day of crude in May, 7.2% above the official forecast and down from 1.952 million barrels per day in April, according to Norwegian Offshore Directorate preliminary figures. Total liquids, including natural gas liquids and condensate, averaged 1.909 million barrels per day. Across the first five months of 2026, total petroleum production reached 102.6 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent, roughly 4% above the equivalent period in 2025.5
Investment is rising in step. Norwegian oil and gas companies revised their 2026 capex estimate to NOK 266 billion ($28.64 billion) in May (2026-05-28), up from NOK 255 billion projected in February, with 2027 spending seen at NOK 207 billion against an earlier forecast of NOK 201 billion. A NOK 20 billion ConocoPhillips-led redevelopment of three previously closed fields in the Greater Ekofisk Area is among the larger commitments driving those revisions.4
For power buyers, the 2027 fixed price is the outstanding variable. With NO2 day-ahead sitting at €148.66 per megawatt-hour and Oslo offering no signal on timing, industrial consumers on spot exposure face an extended planning gap. Any announcement that puts the fixed rate materially below current spot levels would immediately affect how those buyers hedge into 2027 — and with Norway's hydro reservoir position still uncertain, the range of possible fixed-price outcomes is wider than usual.6,2,1