US Strategic Reserve Falls to 1983 Low as Brent Trades Near $89
The US SPR at 316 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, leaves traders with almost no cushion if Strait of Hormuz flows deteriorate again.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $88.74 a barrel on Wednesday (2026-08-12), retreating from the $91.41 intraday high touched on July 19 (2026-07-19). The pullback looks calmer than conditions warrant. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 316 million barrels by mid-July 2026, its lowest level since 1983, according to Foreign Policy.7
The drawdown since the conflict began has been sharp. The United States held 414 million barrels in reserve at the war's start, and has since released or consumed roughly 98 million barrels. J.P. Morgan estimated that of the roughly 8.4 billion barrels the world held in storage when Iran first disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows, a cushion built through two years of oversupply, only about 800 million barrels were actually accessible without pushing wells, pipelines, tankers, and refineries to operational limits.7
The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily in 2024, representing about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, EIA data show.6 Saudi Arabia has ramped up its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu to compensate, a route capable of 7 million barrels per day, though the port's export infrastructure caps actual flows at 5 million. The United Arab Emirates has added volumes through its Fujairah pipeline, rated at 1.8 million barrels per day. Those two bypass routes together cover less than 35% of normal strait throughput.3,7
Price action since June has been erratic in both directions. Brent spiked 5% on Monday (2026-06-08) on a new flare-up in hostilities between Iran and Israel, then dropped more than 3% the next day, Tuesday (2026-06-09), with Brent at $91.79 a barrel, down 2.6%, and WTI at $88.49, down 3.1%.3
Crude oil prices jumped as much as 9% in a single session after President Trump announced plans to impose shipping fees in the Strait of Hormuz, Times Now News reported on July 13 (2026-07-13).5 Days later, Brent reached $91.41 intraday on July 19 (2026-07-19), with the front-month settling mid-morning at $90.56, up 2.8% from the previous close of $88.10, and WTI at $84.49.6
Earlier in the conflict, Brent had traded as high as $105.83 a barrel on Thursday (2026-05-21), with WTI at $99.23, as a drawdown in US crude inventories reinforced supply fears, Livemint reported. Those highs have not been retested.1
Goldman Sachs said in late June (week of 2026-06-29) that Hormuz traffic appeared headed toward normalization. Citigroup forecast that Brent could fall to as low as $60 a barrel by year-end if flows through the strait return to near-normal levels.4 Energy Aspects analysts offered a sharper view at the end of June: with inventories so low, the oil market remains dangerously exposed to the next shock.4 JPMorgan and the International Energy Agency have both sounded supply warnings as the conflict has extended, per oilprice.com.2
RBOB gasoline front-month edged up 0.96% to $3.15 a gallon on Wednesday (2026-08-12), and JKM for Asian LNG gained 0.28% to $21.24 per MMBtu on the same date, a reminder that any fresh disruption through Hormuz would move quickly across product and gas markets. Tanker traffic through the strait and the pace of diplomatic exchange between Washington and Tehran are the concrete things to track. The $60 Citigroup call and the Energy Aspects warning sit on opposite ends of the range, and at 316 million barrels the SPR has little left to deploy if the conflict escalates again.4,7