Hormuz Ship Traffic Falls to Weekly Low as Standoff Enters New Week
Vessel owners are pulling back from the strait again, pushing ICE Brent front-month above $88 and TTF to its highest level in months.
The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a week-low on Tuesday (2026-08-11), according to shipping data cited by OilPrice.com, as vessel owners continue to avoid the waterway amid heightened security risks and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $88.88 a barrel at 07:02 UTC on Thursday (2026-08-13), while ICE Endex TTF front-month had climbed 4.01% to €61.03 per megawatt-hour at 20:05 UTC on Wednesday (2026-08-12).8
The renewed decline marks a fresh setback in a standoff that has been grinding on since Iran took control of the strait shortly after the outbreak of war with the United States and Israel. Before the conflict, some 20 million barrels of oil a day flowed through the chokepoint. That throughput has not recovered.3,8
The Trump administration had previously claimed progress. In June, President Trump said U.S. operations had allowed 100 million barrels to slip through the Iranian cordon — roughly 2.5 million barrels a day since the start of May, or about one-sixth of the prewar total. But Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, put that bluntly when speaking to Foreign Policy: "We're nowhere close to being there yet. There's always been scope for ships to sneak out."5
The IMO has added its voice to those urging caution. On June 1 (2026-06-01), IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez told Montel that a full reopening would require guaranteed seafarer safety and that any tolls paid to Iran would breach maritime law. Neither condition appears close to being met.4
Fresh strikes complicated the picture further in July. U.S. Central Command and Iranian forces exchanged attacks overnight into Monday (2026-07-13), with both sides issuing conflicting statements over whether the strait was open to shipping, Rigzone reported. ICE Brent jumped 4.3% to above $79 a barrel at 5:54 a.m. London time that day — well below where it trades now.7
The cumulative toll is substantial. ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber said on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that more than 1 billion barrels of oil had been lost since the strait's closure, with nearly 100 million additional barrels lost for every week it remains shut.2
TTF's move to €61.03 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday (2026-08-12) tracks closely against forecasts analysts had made months earlier. A Montel poll conducted in May (2026-05) warned European gas prices could average €63 per megawatt-hour if the strait remained largely closed to LNG traffic through July. That scenario has effectively played out, with TTF now sitting just below that threshold. The same poll suggested ICE Endex TTF front-month could hold around €47 per megawatt-hour if the waterway fully reopened by end of May; it did not.1
Asian buyers are also feeling the squeeze. JKM, the Asian LNG spot benchmark, was at $21.24 per million British thermal units at 07:02 UTC on Thursday (2026-08-13), reflecting sustained tightness in spot LNG supply globally. The cross-sector read is direct: LNG supply disruption from the Gulf lifts JKM alongside TTF.8
The UAE is working around the chokepoint. ADNOC's Al Jaber confirmed on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that the UAE has redirected some exports through the existing pipeline to Fujairah, which carries a maximum of 1.8 million barrels per day, and that a second bypass pipeline is now roughly 50% complete. Even at full capacity, Fujairah handles less than a tenth of prewar Hormuz throughput.2
War on the Rocks noted in late June (2026-06-23) that Iran had eased some restrictions as part of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, allowing some shipping to resume. But the arrangement has been fitful, and this week's (week of 2026-08-10) traffic decline suggests the easing is not holding. The negotiations themselves remain unresolved, with no public timeline for a deal.6,8
Whether U.S.-Iran talks produce any verifiable agreement on safe passage before vessel operators finalize their September cargo schedules is the near-term signal traders are pricing. Absent that, the Fujairah bypass capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day and whatever trickles through the Iranian cordon remain the effective ceiling on Gulf crude supply reaching world markets.2,8