Trump's Offshore Wind Buybacks Drive U.S. Capacity Forecast to 6 GW by 2035
BloombergNEF now expects only 6 GW of U.S. offshore wind by 2035, down from 39 GW in 2024, as federal lease payments surpass $2.7 billion.
BloombergNEF now expects only 6 gigawatts of U.S. offshore wind capacity to be completed by 2035, down from 39 GW the firm anticipated two years ago. The revision, reported August 6 (2026-08-06), reflects the cumulative effect of stop-work orders and a federal lease-buyback program that has gutted the development pipeline.8
For East Coast power markets, the implications are direct. Offshore wind was being built to supply load centers where gas generators routinely set marginal prices on peak summer days. With 33 GW removed from the medium-term supply picture, that gas exposure persists into the 2030s for utilities and ratepayers alike.8
The administration's instrument has been a systematic buyback of federally auctioned leases. TotalEnergies, the French major, accepted approximately $1 billion in March 2026 to permanently halt two U.S. offshore wind projects. Ocean Winds and its partners followed in late April 2026 (week of 2026-04-27), collecting $885 million for two leases. Invenergy settled in June 2026 for $765 million covering four leases. Duke Energy received $129 million for acreage in the Carolina Long Bay, in a deal the Department of the Interior announced on July 1 (2026-07-01) as its fourth such agreement.7,1,4,3,6
Federal payments to exit the offshore wind sector have reached approximately $2.78 billion in disclosed settlements, all drawn from public funds.6
The stated justification for the stop-work orders was national security. Independent analysts rejected that framing. The five offshore wind farms subject to those orders collectively cover 0.016% of the total area of the Atlantic continental shelf, a footprint that experts cited in August 6 (2026-08-06) reporting said was far too small to constitute a genuine security threat.8
Courts have complicated the administration's position. A federal court ruled against wind restrictions in June 2026 (2026-06-18), and critics described the TotalEnergies payout as an extraordinary transfer of taxpayer money to a foreign company, a characterization the administration has not directly contested.5,7
Not every project is in retreat. Ørsted's Revolution Wind and Dominion Energy's Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind have both begun generating power, with construction on both projects continuing. Dominion has forecast its Virginia project will save ratepayers $5 billion in fuel costs over its first decade of operations — a figure that acquires new weight given how much longer those ratepayers will now rely on gas to cover the capacity gap.2
The offshore squeeze runs alongside a parallel constraint onshore. The U.S. Department of Defense halted its review of more than 150 onshore wind projects in May 2026, leaving roughly 30 gigawatts of planned capacity in procedural limbo, per reporting published July 4 (2026-07-04).5
Developers with capital to deploy have started redirecting it. Ocean Winds, days after accepting the federal buyout for its U.S. leases (week of 2026-04-27), announced strong progress on European projects. Across the sector, developers have outlined approximately $377 billion in planned clean energy investment through 2031, a sum that will flow toward markets with more stable policy frameworks if the U.S. posture holds.1,5
How the administration handles Dominion's and Ørsted's operating assets, which are already generating power, will be the signal most closely watched by investors. Stop-work orders targeted at construction-stage projects are one thing; disrupting capacity that is already on the grid is a different scale of political risk.2