Russia's Refinery Throughput Drops to 4.69M Bpd as $13B Drone Damage Forces Export Ban

Russia's Refinery Throughput Drops to 4.69M Bpd as $13B Drone Damage Forces Export Ban Ukraine's systematic strikes on four major refineries account for 25% of Russia's diesel and 30% of gasoline output, costing Moscow up to $100 million daily in lost earnings. Russia is finalising a ban on diesel and aviation fuel exports after Ukrainian long-range drone strikes knocked out a quarter of the country's refining capacity, OilPrice.com reported. The ban signals that Moscow can no longer serve both domestic consumers and export customers from a downstream sector that has been systematically degraded over three months.⁶ The damage is concentrated in four major facilities. The Ryazan, Moscow, Kirishi, and NORSI refineries in Nizhny Novgorod process roughly 238,000 tonnes per day, or 83 million metric tonnes annually. That volume represents about 25% of Russia's diesel output and 30% of its gasoline production. By April, average refinery throughput had dropped to 4.69 million barrels per day.⁶ The financial toll is quantified. Ukrainian strikes cost Russian oil companies $13 billion in 2025. Continued attacks cause Putin's war effort to lose up to $100 million per day in potential earnings. Strikes on export terminals have previously caused weekly oil flows to fall by 1.75 million barrels per day. Oil and gas taxes generate roughly 25% of all Russian state revenues.⁶ Almost half of Russia's refineries have been hit, the Economist reported. The tempo is accelerating. Ukraine is targeting the same facilities repeatedly to prevent repair. The campaign is not random. It is industrial attrition.⁵ Russia's energy trade is restructuring under pressure. Gas now accounts for just 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021. Oil imports from Russia to the EU have fallen to 3% from around 30%. Pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union are expected to decline 10.7% this year to 72 bcm.^2,1 Despite the refinery destruction, Russia raised its oil export forecast to 240.1 million tonnes for 2025, up from 229.7 million tonnes previously. The paradox: Russia exports more crude because it cannot refine it. Revenue projections were revised up to $206.1 billion for this year. Elevated global prices are partially compensating for lost downstream margin.^1,2 Gazprom incurred losses of nearly $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999. Gas production declined 3.2% in the first half of the year. LNG production fell 5.1%. Power of Siberia pipeline exports to China are projected to rise over 20% to maximum capacity at 38 bcm, but Chinese demand has not replaced lost European revenue.^2,3 The UAE's OPEC exit has weakened the alliance's ability to coordinate output responses. Kazakhstan produced 19.7 million tonnes in Q1, at 80.2% of prior-year levels. The production coordination framework that once managed supply shocks is fragmenting.⁴ What to watch is whether Russia implements the diesel export ban formally, and whether European middle distillate markets reprice as Russian barrels are withdrawn. If the ban takes effect while refinery throughput stays at 4.69 million barrels per day, the global diesel balance tightens and the crack spread widens.^6,5