Gas-Fired Power Orders Surge as AI Load Growth and Coal Retirements Drive a $12B Pipeline

Gas-Fired Power Orders Surge as AI Load Growth and Coal Retirements Drive a $12B Pipeline Siemens Energy's 2,400 MW Taiwan deal joins a wave of gas turbine orders backed by data centre demand, with Babcock & Wilcox's backlog up 470%. Siemens Energy signed an agreement with Mai-Liao Power to supply major equipment and long-term services for a 2,400 MW gas-fired combined cycle facility in Taiwan. The plant will consist of two units, each rated at 1,200 MW, replacing 1,800 MW of existing coal-fired generation. CO2 emissions per unit of electricity are projected to fall 58%. Once operational, it will generate nearly 14 billion kWh annually, roughly 5% of Taiwan's total power supply.⁸ The deal is one of several large gas turbine orders landing in quick succession, driven by two converging forces: coal retirement mandates and the surge in electricity demand from AI data centres. Gas-fired power appeals because it offers grid stability with the flexibility of fast start-stop cycling and the reliability of constant output, as Energy Monitor noted.⁷ Babcock & Wilcox illustrates the demand. The company signed a $2.4 billion design-build contract with Base Electron for 1.2 GW of natural gas-fired power, driving its backlog up 470% to $2.8 billion. Shares closed at $14.54, up 129.34% year to date. Management guided 2026 core adjusted EBITDA to $70 million to $85 million, roughly 80% year-on-year growth, excluding any data centre upside. Base Electron is evaluating another 1.2 GW option. The global pipeline exceeds $12 billion.² The risk with Babcock & Wilcox is the balance sheet. Stockholders' equity sits at negative $131.5 million, and a 6.50% note refinancing is due in 2026. The company is building on leverage. If gas turbine margins compress or project timelines slip, the equity shortfall becomes a constraint.² Siemens Energy's partnership with Uniper extends the decarbonisation theme into Europe. The two companies signed a cooperation agreement covering power generation decarbonisation and sector coupling. The long-standing partnership positions both for the coal-to-gas replacement cycle on the European side of the market.⁶ The gas demand underpinning these orders is visible in the US market. NYMEX natural gas front-month June futures settled at $2.96 per million BTU on Friday, gaining 2.3% on the day and 7.4% for the week, on expectations of hotter weather, stronger power-sector demand, and resilient LNG exports. Weekly LNG vessel departures reached 141 Bcf, up 26 Bcf from the prior week despite maintenance at several export facilities.³ Energy storage is the parallel bet. Fluence Energy disclosed master supply agreements with two hyperscalers and a record backlog. Management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue target of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion, with 85% of the midpoint already contracted. But the company announced a secondary offering of 20 million Class A shares priced around $21.00, triggering price volatility. Persistent net losses remain the concern.¹ NuScale Power is pursuing the nuclear route to the same demand. The company joined TVA and ENTRA1 Energy in advancing a 6 GW SMR programme to provide carbon-free baseload for TVA's seven-state region. Small modular reactors compete with gas for data centre load, but on a longer construction timeline.⁵ The European gas supply chain supporting new plant builds is securing long-term contracts. Equinor signed a multi-year agreement for Norwegian continental shelf gas, part of a broader pattern of European utilities locking in pipeline gas for the decade ahead, TransCoastal reported. New gas-fired capacity needs firm fuel supply, and the contracting is happening in parallel with the turbine orders.⁴ What to watch is whether the Mai-Liao project and Babcock & Wilcox's Base Electron contract reach construction start on schedule, and whether the 141 Bcf weekly LNG departure rate holds as US export capacity expands. If gas turbine orders continue at this pace while LNG exports grow, the demand pull on NYMEX Henry Hub front-month tightens from both domestic power burn and international cargo flows.^8,3