US Gas Holds at $2.84 as Hormuz Normalization Fails to Close the TTF Arb
Five months after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed a fifth of global LNG supply, Henry Hub prices sit near multi-month lows while TTF trades above €58 per MWh.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas was unchanged at $2.84 per MMBtu on Monday (2026-07-20), while ICE Endex TTF front-month climbed 2.3% to €58.85 per MWh — a spread that has persisted through ceasefire announcements, partial Hormuz normalization, and every diplomatic development since late February.3,5
The divergence traces to the February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EIA data published on April 28 (2026-04-28) showed the shutdown removed more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supply, roughly 20% of the total, with the bulk of the loss coming from Qatar's Ras Laffan export facility. TTF futures rose 35% from pre-closure levels to $14.80 per MMBtu in the week ending April 24 (2026-04-24); Henry Hub fell 9% over the same period, weighed down by limited incremental export capacity and ample domestic storage.2
The domestic surplus has deepened since. On Wednesday (2026-07-08), August NYMEX natural gas fell 1.62% from a one-and-a-half week high, settling lower on expectations for a larger-than-normal increase in weekly U.S. stockpiles that are already above the five-year average.5
Maintenance shutdowns at export terminals have compounded the picture. On Tuesday (2026-06-02), flows to U.S. LNG export facilities fell to 16.9 Bcf — a seasonal low — pulling July NYMEX contracts down 0.38% in that session, as reduced throughput added gas back into the domestic market. Each dip in export flows widens the gap between what the domestic market prices and what European and Asian buyers are bidding.3
U.S. terminal utilization ran hard during the peak disruption phase. EIA data showed capacity utilization reached 94% of maximum Department of Energy-approved export levels in March, up from an estimated 91% and 17.3 Bcf per day in February. There was little slack to absorb Ras Laffan's exit from global supply, and the maintenance-season pullback has temporarily erased even that headroom.2
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the Iran conflict removed 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity — broadly consistent with the EIA's 10 Bcf/d global shortfall estimate. Restoring that volume depends on the pace of physical repair at Ras Laffan and the durability of the ceasefire, not on the terms of any diplomatic announcement.1,2
Signs of normalization have nonetheless emerged. A provisional U.S.-Iran agreement announced on Sunday (2026-06-14) sent oil and gas prices to their lowest levels since early March. The head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said on June 24 (2026-06-24) that gas markets were on course to return to balance in the third quarter, assuming the Strait remains open. Analysts cautioned that European buyers face infrastructure and rerouting constraints that limit how quickly restored Qatari supply can reach import terminals, and the energy security questions exposed by the closure have not been answered by the ceasefire.7,4
The investment response has been swift. S&P Global data published on July 15 (2026-07-15) attributed increased investment in U.S. LNG export capacity directly to the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption, with buyers seeking long-term supply routes that bypass the strait. The terminal network that ran at 94% of DOE-approved capacity in March — close to its physical ceiling — makes the case for new capacity straightforward for any buyer that requires supply certainty from a strait-independent origin.6,2
At JKM's current $21.02 per MMBtu and TTF near €59 per MWh, the economics behind that investment push are not difficult to read. Henry Hub at $2.84 per MMBtu is pricing a domestic market still absorbing supply that cannot yet leave. The gap will close as fast as Ras Laffan's throughput recovers — a timeline governed by repair schedules and ceasefire durability. Until those 10 Bcf/d return, U.S. gas will keep trading as a local commodity while Europe and Asia compete for whatever cargoes can reach them.5,6,2,7