Europe's LNG Terminal Glut Deepens as Demand Slide Outpaces Planners

Germany is subletting a floating storage and regasification unit to Jordan. France's Le Havre terminal, commissioned by TotalEnergies in October 2023, sat unused from August 2024 onward. Germany's Mukran port FSRU stopped operations roughly a year after commissioning. The post-Ukraine LNG buildout is producing stranded assets. Between 2021 and 2024, the European Union and United Kingdom added 34% more regasification capacity, lifting the total from 20.2 billion cubic feet per day to 27.0 Bcf/d, according to EIA and GIIGNL data. By mid-2023, European import capacity had reached roughly 250 billion cubic meters per year. The expansion was rational when Russian pipeline volumes collapsed and utilities were bidding up whatever cargoes they could secure. The demand calculus has since reversed. Capacity growth that ran at 13% in 2023 and 8% in 2024 is forecast at just 2% for 2025, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. IEEFA is also projecting a 15% decline in European gas consumption between 2025 and 2030, with LNG imports expected to fall 20% over the same period. A Greek FSRU recorded 2% utilization in the first half of this year. The original buildout concentrated in a handful of markets. About 1.7 Bcf/d of new capacity came online in 2022 alone, led by the Netherlands and Germany. The EemsEnergy terminal in the Netherlands added 0.8 Bcf/d using two FSRUs; Germany's Wilhelmshaven Port terminal contributed 0.7 Bcf/d. Seven European countries had further projects under construction expected to add 3.5 Bcf/d by end-2023. American exporters have been the primary beneficiaries of Europe's supply pivot. The U.S. became the world's largest LNG exporter in 2025, per EIA, and industry forecasts suggest it could account for nearly 80% of European LNG imports by 2028 if current trends hold. Norway remains the dominant pipeline supplier at 120-124 bcm per year through North Sea infrastructure. Qatar ships 15-20 bcm of LNG annually, with additional volumes expected once the North Field expansion completes after 2027. Now Germany is leading a separate push into hydrogen import infrastructure. Global Energy Monitor's 2025 Europe Gas Tracker identifies 12 projects to expand or convert LNG terminals for hydrogen derivatives. Germany accounts for half those projects, about a fifth of planned hydrogen pipeline length, and nearly a third of hydrogen-burning power capacity in the pipeline. The planning is thin: only three of the twelve projects have defined capacities, and only five have set start dates. The live stress test is the Hormuz closure. Since March 4, the strait has been shut, cutting roughly 12-14% of EU LNG imports from Qatar, according to Spanish consultancy Tempos Energía. Europe has shifted toward Atlantic Basin suppliers, primarily the U.S. If the closure extends through June, the first replacement cargoes routed around the Cape of Good Hope would arrive in late July—a concentrated delivery window that will test whether Europe's expanded terminal network can absorb the volumes its capacity figures imply. Summer storage refill rates will determine whether any idled capacity needs to be reactivated before winter 2025-26. For now, the terminals built in haste are the ones sitting empty.