Woodside's North West Shelf LNG runs at 99.7% as buyers eye US supply
Record reliability from Australia's biggest LNG complex comes as rising US gas output widens competition for Asian cargoes.
Woodside's North West Shelf LNG plant in Western Australia delivered 99.7% reliability in the first quarter of 2026, while Pluto LNG achieved 100% for a third consecutive quarter, the company reported on Wednesday, 29 April 2026.4
The complex is large enough that its run rates move markets. Any extended outage would tighten a global LNG market already watching for unplanned Atlantic basin maintenance this summer, and the consistent throughput should keep Asian buyers adequately supplied during a season when storage refill demand is rising. Woodside also reported 99.9% reliability at Sangomar and 99.0% at Shenzi, with an average realised price of $63/boe, up 11% from the fourth quarter of 2025.4
Those figures arrive alongside EIA projections that Lower 48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% on the same period last year, with a further 3% increase expected over the full year. That growth is concentrated in the Permian basin, where the EIA forecasts output reaching 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, or 6% above 2025 levels, with a 10% further jump projected for 2027.1
More US supply feeds Gulf Coast LNG terminals, widening the Atlantic-to-Pacific arbitrage at a time when NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas stood at $2.84/MMBtu on Monday (2026-07-20) while JKM Asian LNG held at $21.02/MMBtu. The differential, before freight and regasification, keeps US cargoes competitive on Pacific routes and puts Woodside's output in direct competition with American volumes for the same buyers.1
Permian growth is not without friction. Near-term pipeline constraints are already pressuring deliveries, though the EIA expects those bottlenecks to ease in the second half of the year. The Haynesville shale, a separate dry-gas producing region, is separately forecast to grow 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, adding to the pool of volumes that could flow toward LNG export terminals.1
Woodside's record run rates reduce the risk of unplanned cargo cancellations from Australia, which would otherwise push JKM higher. But they also mean more supply is flowing when buyers have options. The 11% sequential gain in realised prices to $63/boe reflects broader commodity price strength in the first quarter rather than any tightness in Woodside's own supply chain.4
Shell's first-quarter results pointed in a similar direction: adjusted earnings of just under $7 billion, cash flow from operations above $17 billion excluding working capital, and refining utilisation at 99%. A working capital outflow of $11 billion reflected higher commodity prices flowing through inventory and receivables.2
Equinor reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.48, up from $0.81 a year earlier, with capital expenditure steady at $3.1 billion. Norwegian production grew 10%, driven by the ramp-up of Johan Castberg, Halten East and Verdande fields, partially offset by the Peregrino divestment and natural decline.3
CNOOC described a first quarter where the global economy "started high but ended low," with geopolitical tensions weighing on demand, a reading consistent with what several other major producers indicated in their results.5
The bearish supply arithmetic is straightforward: US gas output is rising, Australian LNG is running near maximum capacity, and Chinese demand signals remain ambiguous. Where the outlook clouds is Permian gas infrastructure. The EIA's expectation that pipeline constraints ease "later this year" carries no specific date. If bottlenecks persist into the fourth quarter, the Atlantic arb could narrow faster than the production data currently implies — and Woodside's 99.7% reliability would buy it a meaningful price premium.1