ERCOT Hourly Peak Demand Hits 91 GW Record on July 22
Texas's grid set an all-time hourly load record during a July heat wave, surpassing the prior mark by 6% and straining reliability forecasts built on far smaller demand growth.
ERCOT's hourly peak demand reached 91.089 GW on July 22 (2026-07-22) at 6:00 p.m. CT, according to data reported to the EIA and published on ERCOT's records table, which was last updated on August 6 (2026-08-06). The figure eclipsed the previous all-time record of 85.508 GW, set on August 10, 2023 (2023-08-10), by roughly 5.6 GW.6
A 6% jump in peak load in three years reflects a grid absorbing successive waves of new demand — data centers, electrification, and population growth — while supply additions struggle to keep pace. EIA data show the July 22 (2026-07-22) record was met primarily by natural gas, which covered 48% of generation, followed by solar at 32%.5
The pace of records has been accelerating. ERCOT's previous mark before 2023 stood at 80.148 GW, set on July 20, 2022 (2022-07-20). In four years, peak load climbed more than 10 GW — a roughly 14% increase across the full span, according to ERCOT's records table.6
Texas was not alone in being tested this summer. Southwest Power Pool, covering a broad swath of the central United States, reached its own record of 57.9 GW on July 27 (2026-07-27) at 5:00 p.m., according to EIA data. Back-to-back regional records in consecutive weeks show how broadly this summer's heat stressed the mid-continent grid, well beyond ERCOT's isolated footprint.5
Nationally, EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects total U.S. electricity consumption will reach 4,269 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, up from a record 4,195 billion kWh in 2025, with a further climb to 4,399 billion kWh in 2027. The AI-driven data center buildout is a primary driver, per EIA's own analysis, ending a decade of essentially flat U.S. power demand.4
For ERCOT specifically, EIA forecasts natural gas generation will rise 22% between the summer of 2025 and the summer of 2027. Power-sector natural gas consumption nationally is projected to average 43.7 billion cubic feet per day this summer, in line with last summer's pace, held flat partly by expanding renewables output. But from summer 2027 onward, EIA sees gas-for-power demand climbing 6%, to 46.1 Bcf/d, surpassing the 2024 record by 3%. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was trading at $2.80 per million British thermal units on August 10 (2026-08-10), offering little financial incentive to curtail gas burn.1
The solar contribution at the July 22 (2026-07-22) peak deserves scrutiny. Thirty-two percent of generation at a 6:00 p.m. peak is a meaningful figure, but late-afternoon solar output in Texas declines sharply after roughly 4:00 p.m. as the sun drops. The ability to sustain that share into early evening reflects both scale and geographic timing of demand, but the grid's continued reliance on dispatchable gas to cover the evening ramp remains plainly visible in the numbers.5
Grid reliability concerns predate this summer. The NERC Summer Reliability Assessment, published June 3 (2026-06-03), noted that ERCOT's reserves tightened from 34% to 29% on roughly 1.9% demand growth, with no substantial projected net increase in internal resources. A 6% demand surge above the prior record is materially larger than the 1.9% growth embedded in that assessment.3
Data center load behavior adds another layer of operational risk. Virginia's experience in July 2024 (2024-07-01), when roughly 1,500 MW of data center demand dropped off the grid unexpectedly — enough to power 375,000 Texas homes during peak conditions — illustrates the volatility large digital loads introduce at the substation level. Texas legislators and grid operators have been working on rules to manage abrupt load disconnections and the frequency deviations they produce, according to E&E News.2
EIA projects commercial and industrial electricity demand in the West South Central region, which includes Texas, will rise 20% from the summer of 2025 to the summer of 2027.1 If demand grows at anything close to that pace, the July 22 (2026-07-22) record will not stand for long. Whether another heat event before September tests the 91 GW mark again depends on weather — and Texas summers rarely end quietly.5