Henry Hub Holds Near $2.72 as LNG Export Constraints Prolong US Gas Surplus
NYMEX Henry Hub at $2.72 per MMBtu sits far below JKM and TTF as a US domestic supply surplus outlasts the Hormuz disruption.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas closed at $2.72 per MMBtu on Sunday (2026-08-09), near the lower end of its post-crisis range, while JKM Asian LNG on the same date traded at $21.11 per MMBtu and ICE Endex TTF front-month at €55.50 per megawatt-hour. The spread between those benchmarks widened after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28, stranding US gas in domestic storage while international buyers scrambled for alternative cargoes.2,5
The closure severed transit for over 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supply, roughly 20% of world trade, with the heaviest impact falling on Qatar's Ras Laffan export facility. QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi confirmed the Iran attack had removed 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. By the week ending April 24, TTF futures had reached $14.80 per MMBtu, 35% above pre-closure levels, as European buyers exhausted near-term supply options.2,1
US producers ran hard into export infrastructure limits. Terminal utilization hit 94% of maximum Department of Energy-approved export levels in March, up from an estimated 91% in February when gas flows ran at roughly 17.3 Bcf/d. With no headroom to push more volumes to global markets, domestic supply accumulated and Henry Hub fell 9% in the weeks following the closure.2
Seasonal maintenance then added to the overhang. Flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday (2026-06-02) dropped to 16.9 Bcf/d, the lowest in recent months, as scheduled facility work pulled back export volumes that would otherwise clear domestic gas into international channels. July NYMEX natural gas settled down 0.38% that session, a second consecutive decline.3
Bearish sentiment persisted into early July. The August NYMEX contract fell 1.62% on Wednesday (2026-07-08), with traders pricing in a larger-than-normal weekly US storage build that EIA data showed was already running above the five-year average. The EIA had attributed the US price decline since February 28 to the same ceiling on export throughput: limited capacity to ship more gas meant domestic surpluses had nowhere to go.5,2
The geopolitical backdrop began shifting in mid-June. The US and Iran reached a provisional agreement on Sunday (2026-06-14) to end the conflict, sending share markets higher and energy prices sharply lower. ICE Brent crude front-month, which briefly climbed above $119 per barrel in May, stood at $82.38 per barrel as of Sunday (2026-08-09), while NYMEX WTI front-month sat at $78.88 per barrel — a substantial retreat from the conflict peak.1,4
But European analysts cautioned the deal would not quickly fix supply chains. Ras Laffan still needed to rebuild output, long-term Qatari contracts had been disrupted in ways a peace agreement alone would not reverse fast, and LNG routing arrangements that shifted during the crisis would take time to normalize. E&E News reported from Brussels that European energy problems remained far from resolved.4
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum was more optimistic. Its head said that if Hormuz stayed open, markets were on course to rebalance in the third quarter of the year, with Qatar's LNG output recovering as Ras Laffan resumed normal operations.7
S&P Global noted a longer-dated consequence: the Iran conflict had directly accelerated US LNG investment decisions, suggesting additional export capacity could come online in coming years. That would extend US ability to clear domestic surpluses into global markets, though the timeline depends on when those projects reach final investment decision and construction completion.6
The pace of Ras Laffan's restart is what US gas traders are watching most closely now. Faster Qatari recovery weakens the case for Atlantic Basin LNG arb flows eastward, reducing demand for US export cargoes at the same time domestic inventories run long. At $2.72, NYMEX Henry Hub front-month carries little cushion for that combination.7,5