Macquarie Sees Deep U.S. Product Draws as Crude Stocks Set to Build
Gasoline, distillate and jet fuel draws of 4.8 million barrels combined point to firm summer demand even as crude inventories were set to recover.
Macquarie strategists called for combined product draws of 4.8 million barrels across gasoline, distillate and jet fuel in the EIA weekly petroleum status report due that day, according to a note sent to Rigzone on Wednesday (2026-08-05). The bank forecast gasoline down 2.2 million barrels, distillate down 2.0 million barrels and jet fuel down 0.6 million barrels.6
Those volumes imply demand for the three fuels running at roughly 14.8 million barrels per day, Macquarie said — a figure that would hold up as healthy summer consumption. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $84.47 per barrel as of Monday (2026-08-10), a sharp recovery from $72.11 seen when Brent fell 1.6% on July 1 (2026-07-01) after EIA reported a smaller-than-expected crude draw.6,5
The product picture diverged sharply from crude in the same Macquarie note. The bank simultaneously called for a crude inventory build and flagged that cargo timing remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance — a caveat that has caught consensus forecasters short multiple times through this inventory cycle.6
Crude stockpiles have been drawing consistently since spring. EIA data released June 24 (2026-06-24) showed a 6.1 million barrel decline in the week ending June 19 (2026-06-19), pulling commercial stocks to 412.1 million barrels, already 7% below the five-year seasonal average. A further 3.8 million barrel draw in the week ending June 26 (2026-06-26) brought inventories to 408.4 million barrels. By July 24 (2026-07-24), stocks had fallen to 404.5 million barrels from 411.7 million the week before. A year earlier, on July 25, 2025, commercial crude inventories stood at 426.7 million barrels.3,46
The strategic petroleum reserve provides little cushion. SPR volumes stood at 307.7 million barrels as of July 29 (2026-07-29), down from 311.4 million the week of July 17 and well below the 402.7 million barrels held at the same point in 2025. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on March 11 (2026-03-11) that the Department of Energy would release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of an International Energy Agency coordinated release.6
Supply disruptions underpin the whole inventory picture. EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimated Middle East production shut-ins at 11.3 million barrels per day in May and forecast 11.34 million b/d in June, with Strait of Hormuz shipping remaining effectively closed. The agency projected gradual easing to 10.11 million b/d in the third quarter and 5.70 million b/d by the fourth, though those estimates hinge on a pace of normalization that carries considerable uncertainty.2
Commerzbank FX and commodity analyst Norman Liebke noted in early June that crude inventories were lasting longer than expected even as some product stocks had already fallen materially. That observation preceded the further drawdowns logged through late July.1
NYMEX WTI crude front-month was at $79.06 per barrel and RBOB gasoline front-month at $3.01 per gallon as of Monday (2026-08-10). Heating oil front-month stood at $3.98 per gallon on the same date. The broad market consensus skews heavily bearish, though Dubai crude front-month carries a contrarian bullish signal tied to geopolitics and RBOB gasoline carries a mild bullish flag on supply tightness.6
The number traders will line up against the actual EIA print is Macquarie's implied demand estimate of 14.8 million barrels per day. A miss to the downside raises questions about whether summer demand has peaked ahead of seasonal norms; confirmation sustains the drawdown case heading into the autumn refinery maintenance window, when distillate supply typically comes under additional pressure.6