Texas Moves to Batch-Process 438 GW Data Center Queue as Demand Forecasts Diverge
PUCT's new interconnection rules force large-load projects through a sequential review, even as analysts disagree by 42 GW on how much power data centers will ultimately need.
BloombergNEF's two scenarios for U.S. data center electricity demand by 2030 diverge by 42 GW, analysts said Wednesday (2026-07-22) — a discrepancy that signals how poorly calibrated current grid planning models remain. Almost all U.S. regions ended 2025 with more data center capacity than BNEF had anticipated, and Texas accounted for the largest gap between any prior forecast and actual construction.7
Texas now sits with an interconnection queue of 438 GW. The Public Utility Commission of Texas moved to impose order on that backlog on Thursday (2026-06-18), approving rules for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to process large-load requests, including data centers, in batches. The first tranche of projects has been designated "Batch Zero."4
The batch framework reflects a sharp shift in official expectations. ERCOT had previously estimated that as much as 228 GW of queued capacity could come online by 2032. ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the board on Tuesday (2026-06-02) that figure was "too high of a figure based on realistic expectations."3
But even that revised skepticism may not go far enough. Of all capacity that submitted interconnection requests between 2000 and 2019, only 13% had reached commercial operations by end-2024, while 77% had been withdrawn, according to the International Energy Agency. Texas's latest queue is orders of magnitude larger than anything in that period.1
Grid reliability adds a dimension beyond queue management. U.S. grid operators have warned that data centers could trigger cascading outages if they abruptly trip offline during high-demand periods. ERCOT's board voted on Tuesday (2026-06-02) to require large electricity users to stay connected during grid stress events, a material change from the near-unconditional curtailment rights that large loads previously held.2,3
ERCOT Vice President of System Operations Dan Woodfin said demand could surpass 92 GW during hotter-than-normal weather, driven partly by crypto-mining and data center load growth. That compares to the previous ERCOT peak of 85.5 GW set in August 2023.3
New York's response has been more abrupt. Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order imposing the country's first-ever statewide moratorium on new large-scale data centers for up to one year, freezing permitting outright.6
Globally, electricity demand from data centers grew 17% in 2025, with AI-focused consumption rising 50%, according to the International Energy Agency. In the U.S., data centers account for roughly half of the country's incremental demand growth, the IEA said. BloombergNEF said it had tracked about 100 GW of new project capacity added in the past year alone.1,7
Texas's framework under Senate Bill 6 requires any large load over 75 megawatts connecting after end-2025 to be dispatchable at the grid operator's request. Analysts at Aurora estimate that as much as half of Texas's data center capacity could function as a reliability resource by 2030, reducing its own draw during peak demand periods in Dallas or Houston.5
BofA analysts said data centers could add roughly 125 GW of U.S. electric load over the coming years. BNEF's chip-based model puts U.S. data center demand at 207 GW by 2033. The 42 GW gap between BNEF's own high and low 2030 scenarios illustrates how much uncertainty sits behind every capacity planning decision ERCOT now has to make.7
The outcome of Batch Zero will be the market's first real test of whether Texas's structured process can convert queue size into actual load, or whether it reproduces the historical pattern in which 77% of applicants withdrew before ever connecting.4,1