Gasoline and Diesel Margins Hit 25-Year Highs as Asian Refineries Stay Offline
Global refined product exports remain 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, sustaining crack spreads that Goldman Sachs says are two to three times above historical averages.
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline front-month traded at $2.94 per gallon and NYMEX Heating Oil front-month at $3.88 per gallon on Thursday (2026-08-06). Bloomberg reported refining margins at their highest in roughly 25 years, with gasoline and diesel flowing from western producers toward Asia to cover a fuel production shortfall that has not closed.6
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $82.89 per barrel as of Thursday (2026-08-06), having pulled back toward pre-conflict levels. Products have not followed. Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note published in early June (2026-06-02) that the war in the Middle East had pushed refining margins two to three times above the 2013-2019 average, with diesel margins specifically running $19 to $26 per barrel above pre-war levels.2
The arithmetic is stark. Global exports of refined petroleum products are down 4 million barrels per day from pre-war levels, with both war-related refinery damage and lower Asian refinery output contributing, Goldman Sachs said.2 Kpler data show Middle Eastern crude exports rebounding to more than 12 million bpd in June (2026) from less than 8 million bpd in May — crude supply recovering, refined product supply still lagging badly behind.5
Asian refinery runs put numbers to the problem. Throughput averaged just 3.91 million barrels per day in early July (2026-07-13), more than 1.4 million bpd below the same period last year, according to oilprice.com.5 Kpler data also showed many regional refiners cutting output by 10% or more in the immediate aftermath of the Hormuz disruption.1 The throughput gap is not a narrow regional problem — it is driving product traders to source supply thousands of miles away.
Individual plant outages add specificity. India's Mangalore MRPL refinery, which accounts for 6% of India's crude-processing capacity, shut one of three units and reportedly declared force majeure on some exports, though the company denied the latter.1 With a unit representing a meaningful share of one of India's major complexes offline, incremental South Asian fuel supply remains reduced.
The crude picture in Asia is different. The region was on track to import around 22.18 million bpd in June (2026), close to pre-conflict levels, according to The Star.3 Plenty of feedstock is available. Converting that crude into usable fuel is what remains constrained.
Sparta Commodities' senior oil market analyst June Goh told Firstpost in July (2026-07-09) that Asian refiners are better positioned than they were at the height of the crisis, citing improved diversity in crude sourcing. But she also said ICE Brent crude front-month could revisit $110 per barrel if US-Iran tensions re-escalate. At $82.89, the product margins currently on offer are extraordinary by a generation of historical comparison.4
Goldman Sachs expected gasoline and especially diesel stocks to decline further in the initial phase of any Hormuz reopening, as deferred demand absorbs available supply before inventories rebuild.2 The implication is that the spread between crude and products narrows in stages, not sharply, even as Hormuz traffic gradually recovers.
Asian refinery restart rates are the key variable. Until regional throughput returns to 2025 run rates, the 1.4 million barrel-per-day gap in Asian refinery output will keep product crack spreads elevated and the eastward flow of western gasoline and diesel running at volume.5