India's Russian crude imports reach 2.8 million bpd as Red Sea and Hormuz threats redirect supply
July vessel data show Russia now accounts for 55.5% of India's crude supply as refiners prioritise security over price.
India's crude oil imports from Russia rose to 2.8 million barrels per day in July (2026-07), up from the previous high of 2.7 million bpd in June (2026-06), vessel-tracking data by Kpler showed. The July figure represented the highest average monthly volume on record and lifted Russia's share of India's total crude imports to 55.5%, according to data the Times of India cited. Total Indian crude imports edged up slightly from June to just over 5 million bpd in July.6
The surge in Russian volumes came as Indian refiners continued to rely on Russian supply amid threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and more recently the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, Kpler said. Russian crude will remain a key source of oil supply for India amid the highly uncertain shipping conditions in both passages, analysts said.6
India's crude oil import bill surged to $49.8 billion in the April-June (2026) quarter, a 60% jump from a year earlier, according to government data. The volume of oil bought fell to around 60 million tonnes from 62.6 million tonnes a year earlier, meaning the country paid substantially more for less crude.4
ICE Brent crude front-month touched a five-week high of $90 per barrel on Monday (2026-07-20), adding pressure on an import bill that already represented 40% of India's fiscal 2026 oil purchases.4
The shift toward Russian barrels has accelerated even after the US quietly allowed a waiver permitting the purchase of Russian oil loaded on tankers to expire on June 17 (2026-06-17). India's crude oil imports from Russia remained close to record-high levels in July (2026-07) despite the end of the waiver the previous month, separate data showed.5
Russia continues to be the largest supplier to India, with exports of 2.6 million barrels in recent tracking, according to Kpler data. Venezuela has emerged as the fourth largest supplier with 342,819 barrels per day of oil exports, the data showed.4
The world's third-largest oil importer depends on foreign supply for more than 88% of the crude oil it consumes, making global oil prices one of the most important variables for the economy, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data. Rating agency ICRA estimates that every $10-per-barrel increase in average crude prices raises India's net oil import bill by $13-14 billion and widens the current account deficit by around 0.3% of GDP.1
Global crude prices have retreated from April (2026-04) peaks due to improved supply, Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian buyers, and OPEC+'s agreement to raise production. Recovering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also contributed to the easing, though the market remains wary of the stability of the current truce given the on-again, off-again nature of shipping disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, analysts said.3
Before US sanctions were tightened in 2018, Iran accounted for roughly 10-11.5% of India's crude imports. India has since diversified its supplier base, with Russian barrels filling much of the gap left by Iranian supply.1
Lower crude procurement costs are expected to improve refinery margins, with the financial gains likely to reflect in the July-September (2026) quarter. But analysts say the outlook is not as straightforward as lower crude prices automatically translating into cheaper fuel, given the volatility in shipping routes and the premium Indian refiners must now pay for logistical flexibility.2,3
Goldman Sachs has cut its ICE Brent crude front-month forecasts on expectations that Persian Gulf exports will recover faster than previously anticipated, lowering its target to $80 per barrel in a note released on June 15 (2026-06-15). Even with a projected global oil surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027, the bank expects prices to remain relatively resilient and said risks remain two-sided.1
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $83.17 per barrel on Friday (2026-08-07), down 0.47% on the session. NYMEX WTI front-month settled at $78.05 per barrel, down 0.27%.