Ukraine's Refinery Strikes Leave Russia Dependent on India's Gasoline Lifeline
Russian gasoline output has fallen to around 65% of seasonal demand, and Senate legislation targeting India's Russian energy purchases could remove the only available workaround.
The U.S. Senate advanced legislation on July 28 (2026-07-28) that would allow the president to impose a 500% blanket tariff on Russian goods and a 100% tariff on the five largest importers of Russian crude or natural gas, according to Rigzone. It cleared that hurdle just as Russia's domestic gasoline market was running a deficit measured in tens of thousands of tonnes per day — and as Moscow had begun sourcing emergency supply from India.4,3
Ukrainian drone strikes on three major refineries removed substantial capacity. One plant lost roughly 65% of throughput, Norsi shed 63% and Taneco 56%, oilprice.com reported in July (2026-07-15). By June 2026, Russian gasoline production had fallen to around 90,000 tonnes per day against summer demand of at least 110,000 tonnes. A separate estimate put output at only 65% of seasonal demand. When multiple refineries go offline simultaneously, the standard responses — redirecting product between regions, drawing inventories, cancelling export cargoes — are no longer available in sufficient volume to close the gap.3
Pre-war, Russia ran a modest gasoline surplus. The country produced 41.1 million tonnes in 2024 against domestic consumption of roughly 36 million tonnes, leaving little cushion for a supply shock of this scale. Diesel fares better: 81.6 million tonnes produced in 2024 against domestic demand of around 51 million tonnes. Sustained refinery losses are compressing both markets.3
The crunch has already crossed borders. Kyrgyzstan, landlocked and long reliant on Russian fuel imports, appealed for emergency supply during the week of June 29 (2026-06-29), Rigzone reported. The shortage is starting to ripple into Central Asia's distribution network, where countries lack sufficient domestic production to absorb a reduction in Russian exports.2
India stepped in. At least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline arrived from India in recent months, according to oilprice.com — a partial fix, but one that involves longer transit times and higher logistics costs than domestic supply chains can offer. It also requires India to maintain commercial fuel ties with Russia while simultaneously purchasing discounted Russian crude, a position that has already drawn Washington's attention.3
Trump previously imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi's Russian energy purchases before lifting the measure to advance a broader trade agreement, Rigzone reported. The Senate bill, if enacted, would authorise a 100% tariff on the five largest buyers of Russian crude or gas — a category that could cover India. Whether the administration would use that provision or trade it away in further negotiations is not established by the legislation's text.4
RBOB gasoline front-month was flat at $2.99 per gallon as of August 7 (2026-08-07). Heating oil held at $3.92 per gallon in the same session. ICE Brent crude front-month was at $83.56 per barrel.
Russia's broader energy exports have proved more resilient than sanctions advocates expected. Moscow raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 229.7 million tonnes, suggesting that crude rerouting to Asian buyers has more than offset Western restrictions, according to analysis published in May (2026-05-19). Russian gas now accounts for 18% of EU imports, against 45% in 2021; Russian oil's EU share has fallen to 3% from roughly 30%.1
The gasoline deficit is a different problem from the crude rerouting story. Crude can be redirected east. Gasoline production requires refinery capacity that Ukraine is methodically removing. If Washington presses secondary tariffs on India and the emergency import route closes, Russia faces a domestic fuel gap with no substitute ready to fill it.3,4