UAE Near-Record Output and Venezuelan Supply Lift Add to Deepening Gulf Surplus
UAE output near records after quitting OPEC and Venezuela's sanctions-lifted barrels are compounding a Gulf supply rebound that ICE Brent's current rally has yet to fully price.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $82.89 a barrel on Thursday (2026-08-06), up 1.36%, even as Gulf and Latin American supply has grown by millions of barrels per day since May.6,4
The United Arab Emirates pumped above 3.8 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since April 2020, Reuters estimated, after quitting OPEC to escape production caps. Two sources familiar with production data confirmed the figures to Reuters. Bloomberg data put UAE exports at 3.94 million barrels per day in June, just shy of a record set in late 2025.6,5
The June volumes marked a sharp reversal. At the height of conflict-related disruptions in May, the UAE told OPEC it was producing just 2.11 million barrels per day, down from roughly 3.40 million in February. The IEA assessed higher numbers: it put UAE May output at 2.8 million barrels per day and February at 3.64 million, leaving a gap with the figures the UAE reported to OPEC.6
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has been selling crude through tenders at discounted prices, traders told Reuters.6,5
The wider Gulf rebound extends well beyond the UAE. Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million barrels per day from May to June, reaching 10.07 million barrels per day, Kpler data shows. Vortexa put June Gulf flows at 10.2 million barrels per day, up from 7 million in May. Both figures remain far below the 16.5 million barrels per day recorded a year earlier.6
Saudi Arabia accounts for most of the remaining shortfall. Saudi crude exports averaged 4.32 million barrels per day in June, Vortexa data shows, roughly 3 million barrels per day below February levels. Kuwait reached 1.65 million barrels per day, roughly triple its May rate, but was still nearly 1 million barrels per day short of pre-conflict production.6
Venezuela adds a separate supply thread. Kpler reported that Venezuela is already producing and exporting 1.25 million barrels per day following US sanctions relief after the Maduro government was removed. Venezuelan exports climbed to their highest since 2019 in April, when output reached about 1 million barrels per day, with India stepping up purchases to offset reduced Middle Eastern supply.1,2
Kpler analyst Naveen Das said Venezuelan output could reach 1.5 million barrels per day by year-end. Das noted that Venezuela produces extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude targeting a specific refinery slate, meaning its volumes do not compete directly with lighter Gulf grades.1
OPEC+ has simultaneously been lifting its formal output ceiling. Since the conflict began, the group ratified quota increases totalling 940,000 barrels per day, close to 1% of global demand, Bloomberg reported. A further modest increment was agreed on July 5 (2026-07-05).4
Standard Chartered Bank energy research head Emily Ashford described the broader oil price direction in a report sent on Tuesday (2026-06-30) as a "softening trend," attributing it to the "return of easy barrels outpacing demand recovery."3
Oil futures had fallen 43% from their wartime peak to near $72 a barrel in London before the current partial recovery, Bloomberg reported. Bloomberg separately noted that OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output to defend prices or fighting for market share — a tension that ADNOC's discounted tender sales are already testing.4,6
Saudi Arabia's restoration pace is the clearest near-term variable. Saudi exports in June (2026-06) sat roughly 3 million barrels per day below February levels, meaning the single largest piece of disrupted Gulf supply has not yet returned to market. When those volumes begin moving in earnest, the combined effect of UAE near-record output, Venezuelan growth, and ongoing ADNOC discounting will give crude markets a harder test than Thursday's (2026-08-06) $82.89 print suggests.6