European Gas Storage Falls to 54% as Dual Strait Blockade Chokes LNG Supply
With Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both disrupted, Europe enters injection season carrying its thinnest storage cushion in at least a year.
European gas storage stood below 54% full as of late July (2026-07-22), compared with 64% at the same point in 2025, as the simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb severed two of the world's most important energy corridors, according to data cited by S&P Global Energy's Platts Commodities Focus podcast.6
ICE Endex TTF front-month held at €52.20/MWh on Thursday (2026-08-06), flat on the session, but the price has already run sharply higher from earlier in the year. On Monday (2026-07-13), European wholesale gas prices touched their highest level in more than a month as traders reacted to renewed conflict near Hormuz, according to Yahoo Finance. The storage gap relative to last year is now the market's dominant medium-term anxiety.5,6
The arithmetic of the disruption is severe. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of global oil and gas transited through the Strait of Hormuz, according to oilprice.com. Morningstar DBRS said tanker traffic through the waterway has since fallen around 80%, while attacks on Qatar's LNG export infrastructure have pulled a significant portion of global supply from the market. Iranian missile and drone strikes hit Ras Laffan LNG Trains 4 and 6, as well as Pearl GTL Train 2; QatarEnergy estimates the damage will sideline approximately 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity for an extended period.1,6
The Bab el-Mandeb compounds it. The strait, which normally carries about 7% of global oil output, is now effectively closed to commercial shipping as well, forcing vessels onto longer routes that extend voyage times and tighten the available fleet. Together, the two blockades have contributed to what Morningstar DBRS analyst Andrew O'Conor estimates as a global oil supply deficit of 8 to 10 million barrels per day, or roughly 9% of worldwide demand. Global crude inventories have fallen 3 to 5% since the conflict began, while refined-product stocks are down 8 to 10%.1,6
Asia bears the sharpest immediate pain. The region accounts for nearly 90% of LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE, according to oilprice.com. India was sourcing close to 60% of its LNG imports from the Middle East before hostilities escalated, leaving South Asian buyers scrambling for alternative cargoes. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $20.91/MMBtu on Thursday (2026-08-06).6
Europe's exposure is smaller in percentage terms — the continent sources 7 to 11% of its LNG imports from the Middle East — but the storage deficit amplifies the vulnerability. ICIS analysts said Europe's gas supplies were facing pressure this winter, with the conflict delaying the expected recovery of Qatari LNG flows that the market had anticipated as a relief valve after last winter's draws.6,2
The disruption has reshuffled procurement priorities quickly. LNG transactions reported through the Physical Asia Platts Market on Close assessment process rose sharply, and derivatives volumes jumped 251% year-on-year, according to senior Platts price reporter Suyash Pande. Buyers that had grown comfortable with Middle Eastern supply were pushed into spot markets that were already tightening. Some pivoted toward coal and fuel oil, a shift reflected in Thursday's (2026-08-06) coal ETF rising 1.73% on the session.6
North American suppliers stand to benefit most from the reorientation. US storage remains about 7% above its five-year average and Canadian storage is roughly 4% above average, giving exporters ample feedgas. Morningstar DBRS, speaking at its Credit Insights Calgary conference in June (2026-06-04), said energy security is increasingly outweighing cost considerations in LNG procurement decisions — a shift that, if durable, strengthens the long-term contracting case for US and Canadian projects. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was at $2.66/MMBtu on Thursday (2026-08-06), flat to slightly lower, reflecting that domestic US balances remain comfortable even as global prices spike.1,3
The partial reopening of Hormuz, which drew optimism in late June (2026-06-25), proved short-lived. Reports from Oil & Gas 360 noted that tankers had resumed movement through the strait and crude prices had retreated from wartime highs, but the optimism faded as disruptions returned and the Bab el-Mandeb closure extended the market's exposure. Any agreement that restores reliable transit for Qatari LNG tankers would release pressure quickly — but the 12.8 million tonnes per year of physically damaged capacity at Ras Laffan cannot be restored by diplomacy alone, and QatarEnergy has not given a repair timeline.4,6
With European storage running 10 percentage points behind last year's pace and the peak injection window narrowing toward autumn, the winter supply picture depends heavily on whether Hormuz stabilises and how quickly alternative Atlantic Basin and US Gulf Coast cargoes can fill the gap left by Qatar. Neither is guaranteed before the heating season begins.6,1