Southeast Asia Set to Deliver Less Than a Third of Planned Gas Power by 2030
Wood Mackenzie expects 14.9GW of 53GW in targeted regional gas-fired capacity to come online, leaving Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia exposed to growing power supply gaps.
Southeast Asian governments have collectively targeted about 53 gigawatts of new gas-fired power capacity by 2030. Wood Mackenzie, in analysis published on Wednesday (2026-08-05), expects fewer than 14.9GW to reach commercial operation by the end of the decade, a delivery rate below one-third of stated government plans. Equipment shortages, financing constraints and infrastructure delays account for most of the gap.5
The numbers are most stark in Indonesia. The government has planned 29.4GW of new gas-fired capacity, but Wood Mackenzie expects just 3.7GW to enter operation. Developers have secured gas turbines for only 200 megawatts of an 8.4GW project pipeline, the lowest equipment-procurement rate among the six markets assessed in the report.5
Thailand's position illustrates the pattern at smaller scale. Thailand has targeted 1.4GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030; Wood Mackenzie puts the likely delivery at 0.5GW. The country is also planning to procure 1.8GW of hydrogen-ready generation, a target Wood Mackenzie said will test equipment availability as global turbine supply tightens.5
Malaysia has responded to near-term execution risk by leaning on its existing fleet. Peninsular Malaysia extended the operating life of nearly 5GW of existing gas-fired capacity through 2030 while new projects progress. Wood Mackenzie still forecasts a shortfall: 5.9GW of new capacity expected against a stated requirement of about 9.4GW. Life extensions buy time. They do not close a 3.5GW gap.5
Wood Mackenzie expects Southeast Asia to become a net gas importer by 2033, with LNG supplying more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050. A slower buildout of gas-fired generation could blunt near-term LNG import growth, but Wood Mackenzie's longer-term import timeline is unaffected by the delivery shortfall. The region reaches net importer status either way.5
Wood Mackenzie separately forecast in July (2026-07-14) that Asia Pacific LNG demand will fall approximately 4.1% in 2026, from 268 million tonnes in 2025 to 257 million tonnes. The second consecutive annual decline. JKM Asian LNG spot prices were at $20.91/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-08-05), down 1.23% on the session.4
The capacity shortfall sits alongside separate demand growth pressure. Data centres, electric vehicles and green industrial parks are expected to lift Southeast Asia's electricity consumption by more than 100 terawatt-hours over the next three to four years, according to the 2026 Southeast Asia Green Economy Report from Bain & Company and Standard Chartered. Meeting that demand will require investments exceeding $200 billion, the report found, with annual grid investment shortfalls estimated at $18 billion by 2035.1
Renewable energy has not reliably filled the space left by delayed gas projects. In Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, roughly 50% to 60% of renewable energy projects have been cancelled over the past five years due to regulatory uncertainty, permitting difficulties and limited grid capacity, the Bain/Standard Chartered report found. Thailand's own power development plan targets 33% of electricity demand from renewables by the end of the decade and 51% by 2037. Solar and wind currently account for just 5% of the country's generation mix, according to Ember.1,2,3
Thailand's gas capacity shortfall (0.5GW expected against a 1.4GW target) sits inside this squeeze between slipping renewable delivery and delayed gas build. If both continue to underperform, the country faces extended reliance on ageing thermal assets. That adds maintenance and fuel cost pressures already visible in Malaysia's life-extension strategy.5
Indonesia's turbine contracting position is the clearest marker of regional execution risk. With only 200 megawatts of equipment secured against an 8.4GW pipeline, the worst procurement ratio in the region, any acceleration in contracting over coming months will test whether Wood Mackenzie's 3.7GW delivery estimate is a realistic floor or already too optimistic.5