Shell Flags Higher Q2 Gas Trading Profit as Asian LNG Imports Fall Nearly 4%
Shell's integrated gas unit expects sharply better Q2 results even as Kpler data show Asian LNG arrivals sliding in the first half of 2026.
Shell PLC said on Tuesday (2026-07-07) that trading results for its Integrated Gas segment would be "significantly higher" for the second quarter versus the prior three-month period, signalling the supermajor is capturing spread value even as physical volumes stagnate globally.6
The timing of that guidance sits awkwardly against Shell's own LNG Outlook 2026, published June 30, which forecast that total traded volumes could match 2025 levels only if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes this summer. Shell, the largest trader of the superchilled fuel, had expected trade to grow in 2026 before the Middle East war intervened.4,3
The demand side is already softening. Asian LNG imports for the first half of 2026 fell nearly 4% to 127.70 million tons compared with the same period last year, according to analytics firm Kpler. Analysts expect elevated prices to curb South Asian buying, with end-users switching to coal and domestic gas where available, a dynamic that could offset any supply-side recovery later in the year.1
Platts JKM LNG front-month was quoted at $21.17/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-08-05), with the physical market showing signs of end-user resistance at those levels, according to contrarian signals tracked across the LNG analytics community. The contrarian read on JKM is bearish, driven by supply-side pressure, even as the broader market consensus remains bullish.1
The scale of Shell's position in this market makes its forecast consequential. The company's LNG sales rose 11% to 72.9 million metric tons in 2025, a record for the major, according to its annual report. That growth was built partly on Qatar volumes, including output from the Pearl GTL facility, which processes 1.6 billion cubic feet a day of gas from the North field.4,6
Global trade itself set a record in 2025. The International Gas Union put the total at 436.98 million tonnes, up 6.3% from 2024, with the United States contributing 22.3 million tonnes of the increase to reach 110.74 million tonnes exported — retaining its position as the world's top LNG exporter. Qatar followed with 81.51 million tonnes, up from 77.23 million tonnes, and Australia ranked third at 80.32 million tonnes. Matching that record in 2026 requires absorbing the disruption to flows through a chokepoint Shell's own outlook identifies as the swing variable.5
Shell sees growth resuming in 2027 as new supply enters the market, with around 180 million tons per year of new LNG capacity forecast to come online by 2030. The longer-term view is firmly expansionary: global demand is projected to reach nearly 700 million tons a year by 2050, up roughly 65% from 2025 levels, driven by Asian economic growth and rising power demand from data centres.1,2
South and Southeast Asia alone are expected to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050, Shell said, as domestic gas production in emerging Asian economies declines even as energy consumption rises. The region would need around 300 million tons of LNG per year to meet total demand at that point.1
But that long-run thesis runs into the short-run reality of imports already tracking below year-ago levels through June (2026). If South Asian buyers continue switching to coal, or simply reduce consumption, 2026 trade could finish below the IGU's 2025 record rather than matching it. The next read will come from monthly Kpler arrival data for July and August: sustained weakness would start to test Shell's flat-trade case.1,5
Shell's stronger Q2 trading result suggests the company is positioned to profit from the spread volatility created by Hormuz uncertainty rather than simply being hurt by it. The gap between that financial performance and the physical market slowdown in Asia is where the real uncertainty sits heading into the second half of the year.6,1