Montel Syspower Study Projects Nordic Data Centre Power Demand More Than Doubling by 2030
Demand is projected to rise from 9 TWh in 2027 to 19 TWh by 2030, with Norway set to lead regional growth and grid connection increasingly in question.
Power consumption from data centres in the Nordic region could more than double in three years, according to a long-term analysis published on Wednesday (2026-07-29) by Montel Syspower. The firm projects demand rising from 9 TWh in 2027 to 19 TWh in 2030 and reaching 28 TWh by 2035. Norway is expected to account for the largest share of growth.5
A demand curve of that shape, from 9 TWh to 28 TWh over eight years, forces a rethink of Nordic generation planning. Norway's NO2 day-ahead auction cleared at €101.93 per MWh in Sunday's (2026-08-02) session, already reflecting the premium buyers pay for firm renewable capacity in the region. How grids absorb a threefold increase without drawing more on fossil fuel generation is the primary planning challenge.5
Finland offers a parallel measure. The Finnish Data Center Association said on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that the country's data centre demand is expected to more than triple to 1.2 GW by 2030, up from an operational base of around 368 MW, which currently accounts for roughly 2% of Finland's total electricity consumption, FDCA director Antti Poikola told a Helsinki conference. The lobby expects further upside if additional projects advance beyond current plans.2
Whether existing renewables can absorb the load is contested. Markus Rauramo, chief executive of Finnish utility Fortum, told Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21) that renewable energy can in many cases meet growing data centre demand throughout the Nordic region without requiring new nuclear capacity in the short term. His argument rests on the region's existing renewable base and its capacity for additional build-out.1
Still, the difference between a rigid load and a managed one has material consequences for how much new dispatchable generation is needed. A study published on Monday (2026-04-20) found that flexible data centre operations could cut their contribution to peak power demand by up to 45% by 2035, avoiding the need for 4 GW of fossil fuel back-up capacity, Montel reported. That swing is large enough to change the economics of new firm generation investment.3
ENTSO-E has laid out a less comfortable scenario. The European network of transmission system operators warned on Friday (2026-05-08) that grid operators may be forced to reduce renewable energy penetration across Europe if data centre demand is not properly managed. Data centre loads arrive in concentrated geographic clusters, scale rapidly, and behave differently from the diffuse residential and commercial demand that planners have historically modelled.4
Norway's central position in the Montel Syspower forecast reflects its established attractions: cheap and abundant hydropower, cold climate, and relative planning stability. But the projections imply a scale of industrial electricity demand that exceeds anything Nordic system operators have historically planned around. Grid connection timelines, not generation capacity in aggregate, may prove the binding constraint on how quickly that demand materialises.5
Data centre pipeline figures carry structural uncertainty. Announcements regularly exceed completions, and the FDCA's Finnish tripling forecast was described as having further upside if new projects advance, making 1.2 GW a midpoint estimate rather than a ceiling and leaving the range of plausible outcomes for the broader Nordic region wide.2
How Nordic transmission operators respond to grid connection requests over the coming year will be the clearest leading indicator of whether the 2030 midpoint of 19 TWh is reachable. ENTSO-E's warning that renewable penetration may need to be curtailed if load growth is not managed properly suggests the grid integration challenge could bind before the total generation capacity question does.5,4