Saudi Arabia Pushes Maritime Coalition as ICE Brent Holds Near $91 After 8% Weekly Loss
A mid-week sell-off left ICE Brent crude front-month down roughly 8% on the week ending July 31, but Saudi Arabia's push for a Red Sea coalition and two open chokepoints kept prices above $90.
ICE Brent crude front-month settled up 1.2% near $88 a barrel at Thursday's close (2026-07-31), capping its strongest monthly performance since March even after an 8% weekly retreat as the sell-off that began in the week of July 27 was arrested by the reality of two Middle Eastern shipping lanes under active threat. As of Sunday (2026-08-02), before markets reopened, the contract was quoted at $91.04 a barrel, according to live price data. Saudi Arabia's drive to organize a maritime coalition against the Houthis signals that Riyadh sees the Red Sea disruption as durable rather than episodic.5,6
That context matters for traders trying to read the weekly loss correctly. An 8% decline from the mid-July peak would normally suggest a market reversing a supply-scare premium. But prices holding near $91 — above Thursday's (2026-07-31) settlement of $88 — reflect a market that has not fully written off the chokepoint risk. The Bab el-Mandeb strait handled about 5.4 million barrels of oil per day in the first quarter, per US Energy Information Administration figures, and it remains exposed alongside the Strait of Hormuz.4,5
The sequence matters for context. ICE Brent front-month rose to about $86 a barrel in the week of July 13, gaining just over 5% on the week as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the initial rally, according to data cited by InvestingCube. The pace then accelerated sharply. Brent gained more than 10% in the week of July 20, on top of a 17.35% advance the prior week, per Trading Economics data.1,4
On Wednesday (2026-07-22), Livemint reported that ICE Brent front-month crossed $95 a barrel for the first time since June 11, rising $4.43, or 4.87%, to $95.44 on that session. The move came as diplomatic hopes between Washington and Tehran faded and supply disruption fears compounded. Brent then surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday (2026-07-23) following Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea — a development that opened a second supply threat beyond Hormuz, according to Rigzone.2,3
The monthly tally was striking. ICE Brent front-month's monthly advance reached more than 35%, with the benchmark up roughly 38% year over year, according to data cited by Yahoo Finance. Rigzone noted that July's move extended the benchmark's monthly advance to over 35% as tensions intensified on multiple fronts.3,4
Not every signal was bullish. The EIA reported a surprise 1.4 million barrel build in US crude stocks during the week of July 20, the only bearish data point in an otherwise supportive market. West Texas Intermediate front-month settled below $85 a barrel at Thursday's close (2026-07-31), about $3 below ICE Brent's settlement, a spread reflecting both quality differentials and the market's pricing of export logistics under geopolitical stress.4,6
South Korea's refiners, according to OilPrice.com, are evaluating Venezuelan crude imports for the first time in years as Middle East disruptions push buyers toward alternative feedstocks, just as Venezuelan exports to the United States reached a record 715,000 barrels per day in July. Physical flows are already adjusting before any diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz standoff has materialized.5
Bernstein analysts said ICE Brent crude front-month could climb above $100 a barrel before year-end if the Middle East conflict persists and OECD oil inventories continue to decline. That scenario depends on neither the Red Sea nor the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operation quickly.2
One additional complication emerged late in the week. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium discussed a potential indefinite halt to shipments on Friday (2026-08-01), though the CPC subsequently indicated it would continue oil operations. A confirmed CPC suspension would represent a third simultaneous disruption to global supply routes, a scenario the market has not yet priced.6
When trading resumes, the key variable is whether Saudi Arabia's coalition effort produces any visible deterrent in the Red Sea, or whether Iran signals any willingness to reopen Hormuz. Bernstein's above-$100 forecast requires both chokepoints to stay disrupted. The CPC situation adds a secondary risk that could complicate any orderly retreat in the geopolitical premium.6,2